The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread

#12,326
#12,326
golfballs said:
Yet we have the most experienced roster and return the most minutes in the SEC. From a team that finished 2nd in the regular season and won a SEC title. All of those players are expected to continue to get better. Also what boosts the projection is that our front court benefits from the addition of ORN who rates better than BHH and Uros, and factors in an expected jump for Aidoo. I doubt we finish 2nd either but this is a far cry from the current sentiment in this forum.
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Again, I have not stated I think we have a bad season next year. I think we will be “fine” for 2022-2023. I expect a 21-9 type of season with the roster we have today, a Top 4-5 finish in the SEC, and a 5-seed in March as things stand today. That’s a solid season!

I’m just not seeing the optimism that this projection seems to indicate. I think it severely undervalues the loss of Kennedy Chandler. We do have some spots open and it will be interesting to see how we use those, but we really haven’t addressed the glaring issue of our lack of consistent post-scoring which that projection doesn’t account for.

We’re set up perfectly fine for next year to have a solid season and make the tournament again, but I think considering how much we lose after this next season, there are higher expectations to make a deep March run because we’re going to be hitting the rest button in 2023-2024 in a major way.
 
#12,327
#12,327
bleedingTNorange said:
I would be interested to know, not sure there’s anyway too, the average and maybe worst cases of Top 5-10 Barttorvik rank preseason and what they end up being? I ask cause, no way I think anyone thinks we are Top 5, but I also don’t think we are in for a doomed season as things stand either.
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I can’t resist pulling this data. I’ll take a look. I know the worst variance this year was Michigan projected 7th and finished 24th.
 
#12,330
#12,330
golfballs said:
Yet we have the most experienced roster and return the most minutes in the SEC. From a team that finished 2nd in the regular season and won a SEC title. All of those players are expected to continue to get better. Also what boosts the projection is that our front court benefits from the addition of ORN who rates better than BHH and Uros, and factors in an expected jump for Aidoo. I doubt we finish 2nd either but this is a far cry from the current sentiment in this forum.
Click to expand...
The main concern I see at this point is starters are going to need to log heavy minutes on this team. Especially Ves and JJJ.
ZZ 25/ BJ 15
Vecovi 30+/ Powell 10 or less
James 30+/ Mashak 10 or less
ORN(he's all we have at the moment) 25+/ Backup 15
Aidoo 25/Uros 15.
Some of James 30 will be at the 4, we can probably expect 20 from Key.
 
#12,331
#12,331
As of today I'd estimate here's the MPG breakdown

20 MPG or more:
Santi
JJJ
ZZ
ORN

18 MPG or more:
Key
Aidoo

14 MPG or more:
Uros
Mashack OR Powell

That's 8 or 9 guys getting 14 mpg or more. Which would basically be the rotation.
 
#12,332
#12,332
mr.checkerboards said:
The main concern I see at this point is starters are going to need to log heavy minutes on this team. Especially Ves and JJJ.
ZZ 25/ BJ 15
Vecovi 30+/ Powell 10 or less
James 30+/ Mashak 10 or less
ORN(he's all we have at the moment) 25+/ Backup 15
Aidoo 25/Uros 15.
Some of James 30 will be at the 4, we can probably expect 20 from Key.
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Here’s the thing though, data suggests a 7 man rotation is actually beneficial…I can’t remember the exact number, @golfballs may have it, but playing less guys big minutes is the way to go.
 
#12,333
#12,333
bleedingTNorange said:
Here’s the thing though, data suggests a 7 man rotation is actually beneficial…I can’t remember the exact number, @golfballs may have it, but playing less guys big minutes is the way to go.
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I won't completely argue this as I've thought in the past Barnes keeps his rotations too big for too long, but this team needs more. Who's the killer? Who's going to get the big bucket when we need it? We don't have that guy on the roster.
 
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#12,334
#12,334
bleedingTNorange said:
I would be interested to know, not sure there’s anyway too, the average and maybe worst cases of Top 5-10 Barttorvik rank preseason and what they end up being? I ask cause, no way I think anyone thinks we are Top 5, but I also don’t think we are in for a doomed season as things stand either.
Click to expand...
He has a snapshot feature on his website but it isn't working. I just happen to catalog pre-season projections, but I only have the last 5 years for his site. And the median difference between teams ranked top 10 pre season to post season is 7 spots. The worst case was in 2019 when WVU was ranked 7th and finished 85th. That team was riddled with injuries and transfers IIRC. Next worst 2020 UNC. Preseason 5th finished 78th. Cole Anthony was injured during the heart of the season and Brandon Robinson. The COVID Duke was ranked 8th and finished 32ndIn 2019 Miami was pre-season 10th and finished 58th. They lost Deng Gak early in the year and Dewan Hernandez was never cleared by the NCAA. 2019 VCU was ranked 10th and finished 57th. They also battled injuries. Was also under a first year coach. 2018 Arizona was preseason 2nd and finished 34th but that was when all the fallout from the corruption scandal began. The biggest bust in his predictions which can't be blamed on anything else was 2020 Florida. He had ranked 1st and they finished 31st. That was the Kerry Blackshear year. The next year they were also overratted, projected 7th but finished 39th. That's when they lost Keyontae Johnson. Musselman's 2019 team was a bust :) Preseason 9th, finished 35th. They had no excuses. Anyway would take while to qualify all of these finishes.

Anyway, long story the median is 7 spots, with a lower quartile of 17. So I'd say ranked 2nd given his prediction history, even considering things like injuries and covid, would likely put us no worse than a top 20 team.
 
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#12,335
#12,335
mr.checkerboards said:
I won't completely argue this as I've thought in the past Barnes keeps his rotations too big for too long, but this team needs more. Who's the killer? Who's going to get the big bucket when we need it? We don't have that guy on the roster.
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I don’t disagree, and I’ve said a few times that is my concern with this team, much like it was an issue on last years team. JJJ has the potential but we’ve said that for years now so I’ll believe it when I see it. It doesn’t mean you can’t have a good team/good season, last years team certainly did, but definitely a concern in closer games.
 
#12,336
#12,336
golfballs said:
He has a snapshot feature on his website but it isn't working. I just happen to catalog pre-season projections, but I only have the last 5 years for his site. And the median difference between teams ranked 5-10 pre season to post season is 7 spots. The worst case was in 2019 when WVU was ranked 7th and finished 85th. That team was riddled with injuries and transfers IIRC. Next worst 2020 UNC. Preseason 5th finished 78th. Cole Anthony was injured during the heart of the season and Brandon Robinson. The COVID Duke was ranked 8th and finished 32ndIn 2019 Miami was pre-season 10th and finished 58th. They lost Deng Gak early in the year and Dewan Hernandez was never cleared by the NCAA. 2019 VCU was ranked 10th and finished 57th. They also battled injuries. Was also under a first year coach. 2018 Arizona was preseason 2nd and finished 34th but that was when all the fallout from the corruption scandal began. The biggest bust in his predictions which can't be blamed on anything else was 2020 Florida. He had ranked 1st and they finished 31st. That was the Kerry Blackshear year. The next year they were also overratted, projected 7th but finished 39th. That's when they lost Keyontae Johnson. Musselman's 2019 team was a bust :) Preseason 9th, finished 35th. They had no excuses. Anyway would take while to qualify all of these finishes.

Anyway, long story the median is 7 spots, with a lower quartile of 17. So I'd say ranked 2nd given his prediction history, even considering things like injuries and covid, would put likely no worse than a top 20 team.
Click to expand...
Really great info and appreciate you taking the time to compile it all.
 
#12,337
#12,337
mr.checkerboards said:
I won't completely argue this as I've thought in the past Barnes keeps his rotations too big for too long, but this team needs more. Who's the killer? Who's going to get the big bucket when we need it? We don't have that guy on the roster.
Click to expand...
I'll question if Barnes kept that rotation too big for too long last season, if only because by end of season Kennedy had become that man, and JJJ was the alternate killer.

I'm guessing that he kept the roster so big and longer than usual because of (1) guys coming off early season injuries who needed playing time to become usable pieces, (2) new guys learning the system were just starting to find their game, and (3) the portal threat demands more playing time for guys than the on-the-court game would have called for in the past.
 
#12,338
#12,338
Santi’s girlfriend plays soccer at UT. Their coach just announced he’s leaving for Florida State. If she hits the portal, hopefully it won’t influence his decision on next year too…
 
#12,340
#12,340
Dallasbowlin said:
I’ve watched Tennessee basketball since I was roughly 10 years old (2007) since then I have experienced one SEC regular season title, and 1 SEC tournament championship. I live in the state of Kentucky around people who have experienced six SEC championships, six regular season championships, and one national championship.

I have experienced so, so much heartbreak. I’ve also experienced so many great moments. I would go as far as saying winning the SEC Tournament May have been the best day of my life (besides my sister being born). I cried like a baby. My whole life people have talked **** about Tennessee, I haven’t heard a damn thing this year. So, excuse me if I don’t give one single flying **** what people who only watch when we’re good say. I’m twenty five years old. I’m not getting older. I don’t know how long I’ll live. I want to experience one national championship before I die. I would gladly trade 10 years of my life and it means I get to experience that. That may sound weird to some, but that’s how much this **** means to me.
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Admittedly, I was under the influence of Kentucky bourbon balls with this post 😂
 
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#12,347
#12,347
Btw, if Aidoo doesn't show mad improvement, I will be disappointed. I expect the 🦒 to be a fringe all-SEC guy. I believe his ceiling is high and I expect another full year under Barnes will lead to the cream riseing to the top. He starts drilling 15-20 footers and an occasional 3 and it will open his game up, down low, so much. He shot like 80% + from the line, usually a sign of a good shooter. I have no doubt, he can be an elite rim protector and an above average defender, overall. A couple of times, I saw him switch on guards at the top of the key and more than held his own. 10 points, 6 boards and close to 2 blocks a game is my early projection
 
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#12,349
#12,349
mr.checkerboards said:
The main concern I see at this point is starters are going to need to log heavy minutes on this team. Especially Ves and JJJ.
ZZ 25/ BJ 15
Vecovi 30+/ Powell 10 or less
James 30+/ Mashak 10 or less
ORN(he's all we have at the moment) 25+/ Backup 15
Aidoo 25/Uros 15.
Some of James 30 will be at the 4, we can probably expect 20 from Key.
Click to expand...

Idk if it will happen, but at this point I’d have JJJ play the 4 full time and develop Powell and Mashack to take over the 3 spot.
 
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#12,350
#12,350
TheMookieMonster said:
Again, I have not stated I think we have a bad season next year. I think we will be “fine” for 2022-2023. I expect a 21-9 type of season with the roster we have today, a Top 4-5 finish in the SEC, and a 5-seed in March as things stand today. That’s a solid season!

I’m just not seeing the optimism that this projection seems to indicate. I think it severely undervalues the loss of Kennedy Chandler. We do have some spots open and it will be interesting to see how we use those, but we really haven’t addressed the glaring issue of our lack of consistent post-scoring which that projection doesn’t account for.

We’re set up perfectly fine for next year to have a solid season and make the tournament again, but I think considering how much we lose after this next season, there are higher expectations to make a deep March run because we’re going to be hitting the rest button in 2023-2024 in a major way.
Click to expand...

I agree with this for the most part because a game changing PG will always be hard to replace. With that being said, we still have talent at the guard position and have good talent coming into the program. I am hopeful that Aidoo will take the next step and Uros will continue to grow. Depth won’t be as strong but we are far from being depleted. If we are top 4 in the SEC anything can happen during tournament time depending on how the team gels. I expect another good season ahead before we hit the reset in 2023.
 
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