The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread

#22,701
#22,701
Col_Cathcart said:
I can see why Barnes was on him. That was a really poor decision and even worse execution.
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I don't think he was open at all. When his right foot lands to be able to shoot he has 1 man with a hand in his face and another man literally has his hand on Lanier's side. I don't care if it was a play Barnes drew up - it wasn't open - and he shouldn't have shot it. He did make a bad pass though if Barnes wants to criticize him for that
 
#22,702
#22,702
larjoranj said:
I don't think he was open at all. When his right foot lands to be able to shoot he has 1 man with a hand in his face and another man literally has his hand on Lanier's side. I don't care if it was a play Barnes drew up - it wasn't open - and he shouldn't have shot it. He did make a bad pass though if Barnes wants to criticize him for that
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The issue is if you draw up a play for a shot and the other 4 guys are expecting the player to shoot they're going to position themselves to crash the boards. It wasn't a clean look by any means, but because the team was expecting Chaz to take the shot him not doing so created the turnover.

Had the pass been better it likely doesn't result in Barnes pulling him.
 
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#22,703
#22,703
Maybe I'm just being overly cautious, but why are we such a big favorite tomorrow against Georgia? I agree that we should win the game, but they've beaten two ranked teams back to back, one of which was Kentucky. I get that it's at home, but still...
 
#22,704
#22,704
rocketskates said:
Maybe I'm just being overly cautious, but why are we such a big favorite tomorrow against Georgia? I agree that we should win the game, but they've beaten two ranked teams back to back, one of which was Kentucky. I get that it's at home, but still...
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Not sure the odds makers are "buying" Georgia yet. They're SOS is pretty bad, but I think it'll probably be a tough one. They are coming off wins against Kentucky and OU.

They've just not really shown to be as good away from Stegeman Coliseum. They're 3-2 so far away from home and only 1 win was a true road game (at Georgia Tech). The 2 losses were at Ole Miss and against Marquette on neutral court though so not like they've really had any bad showings yet.

They are a very young/inexperienced team though...they could fold up or they could play like they don't know how difficult TBA is to win at. Will be interesting, them having the 2nd best scoring defense in the SEC might make it a slugfest for us if we struggle shooting.
 
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#22,705
#22,705
MoCo_Vol said:
Not sure the odds makers are "buying" Georgia yet. They're SOS is pretty bad, but I think it'll probably be a tough one. They are coming off wins against Kentucky and OU.

They've just not really shown to be as good away from Stegeman Coliseum. They're 3-2 so far away from home and only 1 win was a true road game (at Georgia Tech). The 2 losses were at Ole Miss and against Marquette on neutral court though so not like they've really had any bad showings yet.

They are a very young/inexperienced team though...they could fold up or they could play like they don't know how difficult TBA is to win at. Will be interesting, them having the 2nd best scoring defense in the SEC might make it a slugfest for us if we struggle shooting.
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Appreciate it!
 
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#22,706
#22,706
tev.sm said:
It looks as if AP voters just look at which teams won or lost each week and just adjust their votes accordingly. There's some adjustment for strength of opponent, mainly if their ranked or unranked, but there's barely any analytics taken into account, compared to KenPom or BartTovik.

AP polling appears to be more of a trending index than an actual indicator of the "best teams" in college basketball.
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100% agree - and the reason the NCAA Selection Committee doesn't rely on them when selecting & seeding the field in March.
 
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#22,707
#22,707
VolGee4 said:
Just for discussion, Louisville and UNC are close (Louisville is higher in the NET) and Louisville beat UNC (why I mentioned it). Arkansas is higher than Creighton in the NET and only a few spots behind in KenPom. Texas is higher than OU in the NET. It’s why I looked at multiple indexes and what the committee uses. OU’s OOC schedule wasn’t exactly stellar. I did the deep dive and why I surmised that Alabama’s wins were not all that off from ours.
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Fair enough. In any event, the deciding factor was obviously the beatdown we took last week while Alabama has won eight straight, including @ A&M, and has the #2 SOS in the country (KenPom).
 
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#22,708
#22,708
rocketskates said:
Maybe I'm just being overly cautious, but why are we such a big favorite tomorrow against Georgia? I agree that we should win the game, but they've beaten two ranked teams back to back, one of which was Kentucky. I get that it's at home, but still...
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I haven’t seen any odds/spread posted by a book for the game yet. I’d guess we open around 14-15 point favorites though, based off KP and home court.
 
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#22,713
#22,713
MoCo_Vol said:
The issue is if you draw up a play for a shot and the other 4 guys are expecting the player to shoot they're going to position themselves to crash the boards. It wasn't a clean look by any means, but because the team was expecting Chaz to take the shot him not doing so created the turnover.

Had the pass been better it likely doesn't result in Barnes pulling him.
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4 players were outside the 3 point line when he went up and passed the ball - they weren't crashing the boards. Only Okpara was in rebounding position. Not taking the shot didn't cause the turnover - Mashack was looking directly at Lanier when he passed the ball and was ready to catch it. It was just 5 feet over his head.
 
#22,715
#22,715
rocketskates said:
Maybe I'm just being overly cautious, but why are we such a big favorite tomorrow against Georgia? I agree that we should win the game, but they've beaten two ranked teams back to back, one of which was Kentucky. I get that it's at home, but still...
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Basketball is largely about matchups.

Start with TBA is a really tough place to play. That’s a factor. This game is at Stegman….its closer.

Newell vs Okpara is going to be an interesting matchup. Probably the one most likely to cause us issues.

Godfrey is no match for Milicic. We should have a good rebounding day if Okpara can pin Newell and leave Milicic free to work.

Georgia’s guards are all under 6’5”, which is great for us because ZZ’s height doesn’t come into play much and we can switch 1-3….something we often can’t do, but is really important for our defense to be able to force turnovers by restricting the angles available for a pass into the post.

They haven’t shot the 3 particularly well and don’t even attempt that many. This game may have the fewest made 3’s for any opponent.

If you’re going to beat us, you’re either going to out physical us inside and get the bigs in foul trouble , or you’re going to force some outside switches to get a shooter in a mismatch. Georgia doesn’t have the matchups to do that. Auburn with Broome does. Florida does. Bama and MSU do to an extent.

We could lose this game, but it will take something like our shooting performance at Florida for that to happen. If we play average, and UGA has their best game, we win.

That’s why the line is big.
 
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#22,716
#22,716
Yeah, as @scottchatt pointed out matchup wise Georgia really doesn't do the things well that typically beat us.

They don't rebound great and even though they play 3 bigs 6'9" or taller only Newell really contributes much. They only have 2 shooters that take at least 2 attempts a game shooting over 32% from deep (Leffew & Demary) the team only takes 21.2 3pa per game and shoots 33%.

I agree that whoever is guarding Newell will be the matchup to watch. He's their leading scorer & rebounder keep him from getting offensive put backs and we should be able to force them in trying to beat us on the outside, which they really haven't shown an ability to do.

They do get to the FT line a lot, a team that seems to try and attack with drives and force teams into making fouls. Could be a game where Dubar has another strong showing, Georgia's guards are all 6'4" o 6'5" and none of them are really go by you fast like Florida has.

Foul trouble and rebounding are the keys to us winning...if we can keep from fouling and out rebound them we should win and probably even cover that large line.
 
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#22,717
#22,717
Feels like a big week for us. We need to go 2-0 because you could argue this is the “easiest” week left on the calendar. We need to stack W’s where we can, as we’re about to have a brutal stretch of MSU, @Auburn, Kentucky, Florida all in a row.
 
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#22,718
#22,718
TheMookieMonster said:
Feels like a big week for us. We need to go 2-0 because you could argue this is the “easiest” week left on the calendar. We need to stack W’s where we can, as we’re about to have a brutal stretch of MSU, @Auburn, Kentucky, Florida all in a row.
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Going 3-0 over the next week would be massive. I will say, I’m much less worried about the State game than I was this time last week. They’re certainly capable of beating us, but the way they’ve defended (or haven’t) in their last two games has been appalling. Honestly more worried about UGA than them at this point.
 
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#22,719
#22,719
berryvol said:
Going 3-0 over the next week would be massive. I will say, I’m much less worried about the State game than I was this time last week. They’re certainly capable of beating us, but the way they’ve defended (or haven’t) in their last two games has been appalling. Honestly more worried about UGA than them at this point.
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Chris Jans has had some solid defenses during his time at MSU so I’m not ready to discount them just yet. Sure, they don’t have a Tolu Smith to give us fits this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he uses this past week of horrific defense to motivate his team to be better on that side of the ball. I suspect by the time we face them they won’t be nearly as bad as they have been.
 
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#22,720
#22,720
The good news is Mississippi State this year doesn't have Tolu Smith, officials made him unguardable last time we played them in the regular season.

Matthews and Hubbard will be ready to play though, those dudes always seem to have great games against us.

Just gotta take it one game at a time, don't think any nights are going to be easy.
 
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#22,721
#22,721
MoCo_Vol said:
The good news is Mississippi State this year doesn't have Tolu Smith, officials made him unguardable last time we played them in the regular season.

Matthews and Hubbard will be ready to play though, those dudes always seem to have great games against us.

Just gotta take it one game at a time, don't think any nights are going to be easy.
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…and Mizzou requires reevaluation. Road dub at the O center…
 
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