It is hard to see the GOP nominate Trump again. He burnt way too many bridges and the Capitol riots were the last straw for some, including Mitch McConnell.
So Trump has no choice but to try to splinter off the Trumpster base. He's a bigger threat to the GOP than to the Dems.
If he can evade criminal and financial problems, I am not sure he will really have an appetite to run again in 2024. Its a ton of work and one wonders whether, absent the trappings of office, he really cared that much about being POTUS. Plus, he can get the same accolades and feed his ego just by going around and doing rallies, acting as kingmaker in Republican states and districts. He could charge enormous fees to those seeking his appearance in their corner in those contests.
Best of all worlds: ego satiated, money coming in, no responsibility.