UT Dissed by Vegas Bettors

#77
#77
Wezcoast said:
As was said, Vegas doesn't make the line on their own. They pay attention to public perception of a team and adjust the line to manipulate how they hope bets will be placed. The fact that they had to drop the line to lure more UT's way, tells me they like WKU in this game . Some bookies make their living on reverse psychology, but this is the best metric you can hope for in an unpredictable sport.
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Fact is they WANT more people to vote on the loser of the spread (Vegas never once thought they'd win by -13.5 they just thought gamblers were gullible enough to buy that spread but didn't see the betting they wanted so changed things) and to do that they have to make any spread believable. The logic of many gamblers seeing that first spread would be "no way they beat UT by more than they beat UK." And they probably got a lot of bets from gamblers saying I'll take UT with that spread (not what they want). However, you make the spread closer and a gambler will take a risk thinking "well if they beat UK by this then they'll probably beat UT by this too since both were 1 win teams last year."

Those who gamble on CFB with Vegas rarely watch every game let alone have the capacity or inclination to know ins and outs of every team.

The second part of establishing spreads is self-protection you want nearly equal bets on most games to prevent heavy $$$ losses and the spreads are designed adjusted with that in mind. When outcome is more certain they also adjust to that luring people with numbers they know have little chance of success but people will risk. And if certain fanbases are convinced they will win even if there's no real reason to think anything is guaranteed they'll lure more of them in via the spread.

CFB has also always been the worst sport for Vegas as it's so unpredictable and so the spreads are designed with much more protection of the house in mind.
 
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#81
#81
the odds makers adjust the lines but its an ultimate indicator of what people are betting...people went hard wku to cover....so they dialed it back no big deal
 
#82
#82
Catbone said:
Your logic is deeply flawed.
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Anyone that thinks we're gonna beat WKU 63-7 like we did with that coach before the Dooley experiment is sadly mistaken. We're way down since then, and they're way up. I can't emphasize enough that this is not a game to take lightly.
 
#83
#83
Yankee_Vol said:
As are most of his posts.


The starters didn't play in the second half. It was 42-0 at the half. We could have got to 50 had CBJ wanted to. Our bakups got much needed playing time.
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After watching most of them, they need a lot more.
 
#84
#84
1974Vol said:
WKU game comes down to two things. Can the Vols run the ball and can they get a pass rush on WKU QB. If they can do both this will be a UT route. If they can do neither maybe Butch doesn't get it.
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I think it will come down to ONE thing, the team that scores the most points win!
 
#86
#86
I've never seen a game where the entire 1st team played zero minutes in the 2nd half. NEVER. I've seen the back up qb come in with the 1st team, and then phase out the starters. UT was within 9 points of meeting the spread at half time.

Butch will have em ready to play.
 
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#89
#89
Who cares if we cover any spread any time, i just want to win even by 1 pt. I quit betting on TN 20 years ago, could never get it to work in my favor. GBO!
 
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#90
#90
lezzgovols said:
the odds makers adjust the lines but its an ultimate indicator of what people are betting...people went hard wku to cover....so they dialed it back no big deal
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Their motivations are to draw more bettors to bet on UT. WKU has a lot of hype right now and has always been considered a great coach (fat bettter than he is but that's neither here nor there) -- public perception is what set betting lines. The goal is always to even out bets and UT has received little hype and hardly a word about the good things that came out of the opener regardless of opponent

See this:

What the Pointspread Represents:

Before engaging in methods to help you beat the pointspread, it is important that you understand the pointspread and what it represents. Most people view the pointspread (or line) as the predicted margin of victory of one team over another. In fact, that is not the case. The job of an oddsmaker is to get half of the wagered money on one side and the other half wagered on the other side. By splitting the bets, with 50% of the money being wagered on each team, the house is guaranteed of making money.

The odds in sports betting wagers that utilize a pointspread are 11 to 10, meaning that a gambler must risk $11 on a losing bet to profit $10 for a winning wager. In other words, there is an extra 10% that must be paid on losing bets. Thus, if the oddsmaker sets a pointspread that splits the money, he uses the loser's money to pay off the winners and has an extra 10% of the loser's money as a profit. So, the job of the oddsmaker is not to predict the margin of victory between two teams and use that as the pointspread, but instead to set a pointspread that will split the money wagered on a game
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^^The above from a pro handicapper.

Then there's the fact that winning at NCAAF gambling is the least likely sport to win against the house. Oddsmakers know that NCAAF gambling, unlike other sports betting, shows a high degree of team loyalty based betting and they manipulate things accordingly.

Even in academic studies designed to prove market efficiency, it's noted that college football is the exception.
 
#91
#91
Understanding how/why lines are set, it's uncanny how often the line ends up being right on the money as far as the final score goes.
 
#92
#92
volmanbill said:
Understanding how/why lines are set, it's uncanny how often the line ends up being right on the money as far as the final score goes.
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It's more often often incorrect in college football -- just close enough to make it look accurate, especially since we're used to seeing ranked SEC teams in the mix. OTHER sports it's much, much, better at predicting.
 
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#97
#97
Petrino is gonna score points. Do we have any passing game? Can we score if they commit to shut down the run? I agree with Vegas. We win by less than 10.
 
#98
#98
WKU lost to ULM, MTSU, FAU, ULL, and CMU last year.

FAU went 3-9 in the Sun Belt, and they lost that game by two scores.

Western is probably better this year, but I just don't see them beating UT unless our D is Sunseri-bad. We should be able to run the ball at will.
 
#99
#99
UT will have no problem covering the 13.5, 9.5 or whatever it is right now. Game will not be close. After watching the WKU/KY game, I'm not impressed. We will run the ball all over them and our LB play will be better than what KY could put on the field. Most of their yards were off missed tackles or poor coverage by LBs.
 
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#100
#100
UTProf said:
Their motivations are to draw more bettors to bet on UT. WKU has a lot of hype right now and has always been considered a great coach (fat bettter than he is but that's neither here nor there) -- public perception is what set betting lines. The goal is always to even out bets and UT has received little hype and hardly a word about the good things that came out of the opener regardless of opponent

See this:



^^The above from a pro handicapper.

Then there's the fact that winning at NCAAF gambling is the least likely sport to win against the house. Oddsmakers know that NCAAF gambling, unlike other sports betting, shows a high degree of team loyalty based betting and they manipulate things accordingly.

Even in academic studies designed to prove market efficiency, it's noted that college football is the exception.
Click to expand...

After the original spread, money is what moves the line.
 
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