UT or UNC for the Last #1 Seed

#152
#152
TheMookieMonster said:
I would love to see the data on how often a 1-seed or 2-seed loses their first game in their conference tournament and then proceeds to make a Final Four. My guess is not that often. You want to be playing your best ball in March. We just lost to Kentucky. Riding a 2-game losing streak into the Big Dance is not that appealing.
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And a hell of a lot more that made the final win or lose that went on to make the F4, it’s a bad take, these aren’t 95 year olds in wheel chairs.
 
#157
#157
pimo1 said:
Depends on a lot more than that. Who do we play and beat? if we win 2 means we lost 1 who did we lose to? Does UNC win their tourney and who do they play? What happens to teams like Florida and NCstate their fates matter to us and UNC. I know people want some simple answer but things are rarely that way.
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I don’t think it’s that complicated in this case. If we make the final then I think we have it regardless of what UNC does. Remember that 95%+ of the resume is already built. We’re slightly ahead right now in a gap that somehow is narrowing without anything really changing but it is what it is. Come Friday we will play a Quad 1 or 2 opponent, followed by another Saturday. Winning 2 more such games is enough in my opinion. Of course if UNC wants to lose and make it easier that’s ok by me.
 
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#158
#158
VolCalls said:
All 122 brackets aren’t updated daily. Some of them go 3-4 days in-between. My point being some of them likely moved UNC to the 1-line on Monday after not having updated their projections since Thursday/Friday.
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Ah, now that makes sense. I figured this time of year that would be updated more frequently but I guess not.
 
#160
#160
TheMookieMonster said:
I would love to see the data on how often a 1-seed or 2-seed loses their first game in their conference tournament and then proceeds to make a Final Four. My guess is not that often. You want to be playing your best ball in March. We just lost to Kentucky. Riding a 2-game losing streak into the Big Dance is not that appealing.
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This is what I posted a couple weeks ago after looking at that, but it's a little different flavor from what you're saying so I added the paragraph immediately below.

To answer your question, that hasn't happened in the last 10 tournaments, but the sample size is pretty small. Good teams tend to win games, so there's just not going to be a ton of teams who lose in their conference quarterfinals but achieve either a 1 or 2 seed. I will say that 2 teams lost in their conference quarterfinals and made it to the Elite 8: Duke in 2013 as a 2 seed and Kansas in 2017 as a 1 seed. There are only 6 teams total since 2013 that have gotten a 1 or 2 seed but lost in their conference quarterfinals.

So this analysis only includes the last 10 tournaments. I'd like to go back further to get more data points, but I just don't have the time. I included the ACC, Big 10, Big 12, Big East, Pac 12, and SEC. Whether or not the Big East should count as a "P5" in some of those earlier years is iffy, but I just did it to be consistent. I also didn't include the American, though there were a couple years they probably would have qualified including 2014 when UConn won the championship from that conference.

I'll start with teams who won their conference championship...

- 3 teams who won their conference tourney went on to win the NCAA Championship: Kansas in 2022, Villanova in 2018, and Louisville in 2013. All 3 of those teams were 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament
- Another 3 teams who won their conference tourney were eventual National Runners Up: UNC in 2016, Michigan in 2018, and Wisconsin in 2015. UNC and Wisconsin were 1 seeds. Michigan was a 3.
- Another 6 teams advanced to the Final 4 (but no further). Auburn, a 5 seed, was the only team seeded lower than a 2.
- 10 teams lost in the Elite 8 with Oregon State being the only low seed to accomplish that
- 13 teams lost in the Sweet 16, with Oregon twice accomplishing that as a 12 seed
- 11 teams lost in the Round of 32, but several of those were teams seeded about where you'd expect to lose fairly early
- 14 teams lost in the 1st Round, but 4 of those teams were 1st round underdogs based on seed.

Let's isolate this to teams who got a top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament...

- There are 142 teams in the last 10 tournaments from these conferences getting a top 4 seed
- Conference Tournament champions advanced to the Final 4 over 25% of the time.
- Teams who lost in the conference championship game advanced to the Final 4 12% of the time
- Teams who lost in the Semifinals advanced to the Final 4 about 19% of the time
- Teams who lost in the Quarterfinals advanced to the Final 4 only 7% of the time (only twice out of 28)
- It starts to flatten out more in the earlier rounds

What about lower seeds in the NCAA tournament. Did they gain momentum by overperforming in their conference tournament?

- I looked at teams who were seeded 6 or below
- Conference tourney champions who got a low seed didn't really gather much steam as 8 of the 12 teams lost in the 1st weekend. Oregon State (darn them!) was the only one to make an Elite 8
- though 2 teams lost in the conference quarterfinals and made a Final 4 from a low seed, we're talking about 2 out of 76. 70 of the 76 teams lost prior to the Sweet 16

Let's look specifically at the SEC...

- Of the 5 Final 4 teams from the SEC in the last 10 years, only 1 has lost prior to Sunday in the SEC Tournament (South Carolina and the Fighting Thornwells)


Bottom line: there is a bit of correlation to say that conference tourney champions are far more likely to advance to a Final 4 than those who lose in the quarterfinals (but still get a top 4 seed). However, conference tourney champions are also far more likely to get 1/2 seeds and, as we know, your odds of making it to a Final 4 improve with each seed. Maybe a better way to say this is that the best teams tend to win more conference tournaments. I think that's the real correlation here. I certainly don't think there's data to suggest that it's better to lose early in the conference tournament.
 
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#161
#161
bleedingTNorange said:
And a hell of a lot more that made the final win or lose that went on to make the F4, it’s a bad take, these aren’t 95 year olds in wheel chairs.
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I’m not necessarily against the idea of getting more minutes for young guys if possible this weekend just to not overload our starters, but I definitely don’t think we should actively try and lose to save legs. But I’m not worried because I don’t think our guys have any plans to do anything other than go to Nashville and try and win another championship.
 
#164
#164
hUTch2002 said:
I don’t think it’s that complicated in this case. If we make the final then I think we have it regardless of what UNC does. Remember that 95%+ of the resume is already built. We’re slightly ahead right now in a gap that somehow is narrowing without anything really changing but it is what it is. Come Friday we will play a Quad 1 or 2 opponent, followed by another Saturday. Winning 2 more such games is enough in my opinion. Of course if UNC wants to lose and make it easier that’s ok by me.
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Gonna beat the conspiracy drums again. My bad take is that the resumes are close enough to ignore and justify which will allow the blue blood bias to carry the day. Someone posted it was great to be hated. Well, while the investigative arm of the NCAA and the committee are "separate", are they really? No bias? No animus?

Nope. This is low hanging fruit for them. I fully expect the shot to be taken any and every time it is presented to them.
 
#175
#175
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I wouldn’t mind UNC getting the #1 over UT since they won head to head. I wouldn’t mind being the #2 in that region either.
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Yeah, part of me thinks the Vols squeaking in as a #1 and the media complaining about it is a recipe for upset. The other part of me wants the #1 because it’s never happened here.
 
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