War in Ukraine

#53,078
#53,078
LouderVol said:
Under shock and Awe the defender is going to take more losses than the attacker. In a war of attrition it's going to be pretty even with probably a slight favorite to the defender.

I keep saying it, but if Russia wants to win they need to go back to Shock and Awe, they did a decent job at the start. But it seems like once their SF guys were gone they had to fall back on ye olde trench warfare. They didnt have enough quality "follow up" troops to relieve their spetsnaz and VDV guys so they took heavier losses and are largely ineffective since then.

This also explains their reliance on Wagner and Chechnya. Those are going to be the closest in quality troops they can muster. But this time they are more supported because without shock and Awe they werent strung out.

If/when those guys get worn out it becomes a real war of attrition. And the losses will really favor Ukraine after that.
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I read that Ukraine lost fixed AD capability early on, but Russia hasn't been able to do much about the mobile stuff. You have to believe shock and awe works best when the country has a real command and communications network and fixed defenses and removing it leaves the country largely defenseless - at this point it might be hard to pin down Ukrainian defenses ... at least those that weren't destroyed as soon as they entered the country. Not sure that Russia has the ability now to do a German style Blitzkrieg which would be another shock and awe. Seems like unless they go with nukes shock and awe have gone down the drain for Russia.
 
#53,079
#53,079
Pacer92 said:
I was talking about the bussing in of militant Nazi protesters during Maiden…and the role Svoboda played in that and in the establishment of the new government under Yatsenyuk…where there were 3 Svoboda Cabinet members and 3-4 governors appointed over Ukrainian oblasts.

Zelensky himself has shown fascist/Nazi tendencies….banning trade unions, banning any media that isn’t state run, Russian aligned Orthodox churches, and most importantly, his unwillingness to entertain peace.
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Acceptance of peace is not a sign of any political faction. Especially a bad peace, or another Minsk 3.

Zelensky is AT WAR. He got full on invaded by Russia. Anybody supporting Russia is going to be an enemy of the people and is going to get shut down in a time of war. Again I cant think of any political faction that would accept active support of the foreign nation invading its country. There is plenty of foreign owned media operating in Ukraine, just not the ones supporting Russia or giving away active military positions or movements, you know cause war and people dying because of those media sources. The russian orthodox church has been very heavily involved in Russias war effort. They dont even try to hide it, they are actively engaged in helping the Russian military. No political party is going to accept that during a time of war, because people are dying. I honestly dont know about the trade union stuff, can you provide a link? I will read whatever Tass or RT link you have, just no videos please.

Were there nationalists at the Maiden protests, yes. Ukraine was protesting Russia's interference in their trade deals, so of course NATIONalists were going to show up. Were they the decision makers, no. They werent a majority.

And there is a big difference between nationalism, and nazism. Putin is a nationalist, it's one of the reasons you guys like him, he puts Russia first. That's a nationalist stance. Ukraine was attacked by a foreign nation, that is going to spark nationalist fervor in any nation. That's the distinction you guys are refusing to acknowledge, the fundamental differences between nationalism and fascism/nazism.

And can you provide a link to those Nazis being put into power? Everything I am seeing has their numbers decreasing. So yeah maybe there were SOME nazis in power, but that was after far more Nazis lost power. Which is what I have been saying. 2010 there were 37, 2014 there were 6, 2019 there is 1. That's a positive trend, and none of it from Putin.

Actually, the invasion probably help break down support of the nazis, Svodoba. Before the war there werent any major Ukrainian partys with a nationalist tilt except for Svodoba. So if you were a nationalist, that was the only place for you. Now its acceptable for other parties to take on more nationalist tendecies/policies and those nationalist Svodoba members left the nazis to go find better parties. That also explains why you are seeing more national pride pop up in the naming of things. Ukraine never before had a reason to think of Russia as someone else, now they do. All because Putin overplayed his hand after losing his grip on Ukrainian politics.
 
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#53,080
#53,080
AM64 said:
I still wonder if Russia's real reason for wanting to join NATO was to hold veto power like they do in the UN. Russia would have been the fox in the henhouse because NATO was there to counter Russia (I suppose Soviets for the Pootin devout - hard to keep up with that flip flop).
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Could be, but it would also tie them, at least on paper, to some very non Russian Standards. Although NATO has shown that doesnt stop anyone, Erdogan.

I think they were worried about China. The soviets held a ton of sway in central, south, and eastern Asia. The PRC was always second hands. Now with the Soviets gone the chinese gained a ton more flexibility in its ability to apply pressure throughout that region. Joining NATO would offset that loss in clout.
 
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#53,081
#53,081
Pacer92 said:
We were physically there. Money was there. Henchmen were there. Militants were there….all, our doing. Deny until you turn blue in the face. I don’t care.

Finland hasn’t been killing ethnic Russians for 8 years either.

NATO encroachment caused this…is what it is.
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What NATO encroachment? Where was the deal for Ukraine to join NATO? Just like that first "referendum" in Dontesk that Putin rejected, when Ukraine asked to join back in the late 2000s, they were rejected by NATO.

You cant even get off the starting block without fumbling.
 
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#53,082
#53,082
AM64 said:
I read that Ukraine lost fixed AD capability early on, but Russia hasn't been able to do much about the mobile stuff. You have to believe shock and awe works best when the country has a real command and communications network and fixed defenses and removing it leaves the country largely defenseless - at this point it might be hard to pin down Ukrainian defenses ... at least those that weren't destroyed as soon as they entered the country. Not sure that Russia has the ability now to do a German style Blitzkrieg which would be another shock and awe. Seems like unless they go with nukes shock and awe have gone down the drain for Russia.
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Yeah the AD stuff I dont have much of a grasp on. The fixed stuff makes sense as easy targets. But for the mobile, maybe they arent "on" all the time and keep mobile enough where even we couldnt actively track? Or maybe they are using western strategies with those that hard counter the russian tech? Maybe they cant "retrace" the radar signals, as I understand our anti-AD stuff often works, and could only take out the fixed stuff because they knew the physical location.

Lots of unknowns and guess there for me to really comment.

I think without the stealth capability they probably lost their best air stuff hitting the fixed locations. We start our shock and Awe with the sneaky stuff, before we roll in the normal flyboys. So even with the advantage they may not have the horses to take advantage.

And I really wonder if their strategic bomber capability is as hampered as their surface fleet is. Barely kept functional, and not an effective force in the air? Because my understanding is that even conventional stuff can still fly high enough to get over most AA. Or maybe it just gives them enough time to get out/apply countermeasures. But I would still assume Russia should have some capabilities to strike Ukraine via the air.
 
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#53,083
#53,083
LouderVol said:
Acceptance of peace is not a sign of any political faction. Especially a bad peace, or another Minsk 3.

Zelensky is AT WAR. He got full on invaded by Russia. Anybody supporting Russia is going to be an enemy of the people and is going to get shut down in a time of war. Again I cant think of any political faction that would accept active support of the foreign nation invading its country. There is plenty of foreign owned media operating in Ukraine, just not the ones supporting Russia or giving away active military positions or movements, you know cause war and people dying because of those media sources. The russian orthodox church has been very heavily involved in Russias war effort. They dont even try to hide it, they are actively engaged in helping the Russian military. No political party is going to accept that during a time of war, because people are dying. I honestly dont know about the trade union stuff, can you provide a link? I will read whatever Tass or RT link you have, just no videos please.

Were there nationalists at the Maiden protests, yes. Ukraine was protesting Russia's interference in their trade deals, so of course NATIONalists were going to show up. Were they the decision makers, no. They werent a majority.

And there is a big difference between nationalism, and nazism. Putin is a nationalist, it's one of the reasons you guys like him, he puts Russia first. That's a nationalist stance. Ukraine was attacked by a foreign nation, that is going to spark nationalist fervor in any nation. That's the distinction you guys are refusing to acknowledge, the fundamental differences between nationalism and fascism/nazism.

And can you provide a link to those Nazis being put into power? Everything I am seeing has their numbers decreasing. So yeah maybe there were SOME nazis in power, but that was after far more Nazis lost power. Which is what I have been saying. 2010 there were 37, 2014 there were 6, 2019 there is 1. That's a positive trend, and none of it from Putin.

Actually, the invasion probably help break down support of the nazis, Svodoba. Before the war there werent any major Ukrainian partys with a nationalist tilt except for Svodoba. So if you were a nationalist, that was the only place for you. Now its acceptable for other parties to take on more nationalist tendecies/policies and those nationalist Svodoba members left the nazis to go find better parties. That also explains why you are seeing more national pride pop up in the naming of things. Ukraine never before had a reason to think of Russia as someone else, now they do. All because Putin overplayed his hand after losing his grip on Ukrainian politics.
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The point is there were opportunities to hold up his end of Minsk, instead of strolling through the Donbas trenches on publicity stunts and soliciting money and arms from the west. The reason he made these choices is a simple reason…he’s taking orders.

There may be a difference in nationalism and nazis, but it’s not hard to figure out when Ukrainian “nationalists” aren’t even hiding their Nazi themed insignia..

Ukrainian ultra-rightists given major cabinet posts in government
 
#53,085
#53,085
LouderVol said:
What NATO encroachment? Where was the deal for Ukraine to join NATO? Just like that first "referendum" in Dontesk that Putin rejected, when Ukraine asked to join back in the late 2000s, they were rejected by NATO.

You cant even get off the starting block without fumbling.
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You can’t be serious with this kind of denial of NATO expansion up to Russia’s doorstep…lol.

Putin rejected the referendum because he wanted to salvage some peace with the west…as naive as that was.
 
#53,086
#53,086
Pacer92 said:
The point is there were opportunities to hold up his end of Minsk, instead of strolling through the Donbas trenches on publicity stunts and soliciting money and arms from the west. The reason he made these choices is a simple reason…he’s taking orders.

There may be a difference in nationalism and nazis, but it’s not hard to figure out when Ukrainian “nationalists” aren’t even hiding their Nazi themed insignia..

Ukrainian ultra-rightists given major cabinet posts in government
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Again, I have never denied their are actual nazis. I am just pointing out there arent as many as you think, and their number is decreasing, which is counter to the bs you have been fed. I have facts, you have opinions.

And if Zelensky is taking orders, its from his people, not from America. Remember these are the people who revolted against the previous president who is in Russia's pocket. So very clearly there is a large majority of Ukrainians who dont like Russia. I would imagine that anti-Russia support grew after Russia took territory in 2014, and it grew even more in 2022 when Russia invaded. His people have no problem removing leaders who favor Russia. So it is in his best interest to keep up the war as long as the people support it.

These are two slavic nations fighting each other. This is going to be messy and personal. Always has been, always will be. Nothing to do with outside powers or money. Putin and now you guys wont accept that Russia is not nearly as popular as you think it is.
 
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#53,088
#53,088
Pacer92 said:
You can’t be serious with this kind of denial of NATO expansion up to Russia’s doorstep…lol.

Putin rejected the referendum because he wanted to salvage some peace with the west…as naive as that was.
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Yes I am serious about there being no NATO encroachment. NATO gained a border with Russia in 2002. It is literally impossible for NATO to get closer, they are touching, and have been for 2 decades. And there have been no issues. And that timeline ignores Kalingrad which would add some more time.

There was no deal for Ukraine to join NATO. None, zip, zero. They had been in talks for about a decade, since 2002, but it had made no progress. But suddenly in 2014 it became an issue. There was no pending NATO vote, Ukraine hadnt even asked to apply again, yet alone begun the formal process of APPLYING. The only impetus for Ukraine to join NATO began after Russia's invasion.

Please provide any evidence of NATO encroachment pre 2014. Because I am willing to bet you are relying on opinions that avoid the actual facts again.
 
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#53,095
#53,095
AM64 said:
I still wonder if Russia's real reason for wanting to join NATO was to hold veto power like they do in the UN. Russia would have been the fox in the henhouse because NATO was there to counter Russia (I suppose Soviets for the Pootin devout - hard to keep up with that flip flop).
Click to expand...
No, Putin was naive when he asked to join NATO back then... and he was just as naive when he thought Merkel and France/NATO would abide by the Minsk II ceasefire agreements in 2015. He really did think that he could negotiate honestly with the west in both instances.
 
#53,096
#53,096
norrislakevol said:
What should matter to them then is that Finland is joining NATO since they started this mess in Ukraine. Had there not been an invasion in Ukraine then Finland wouldn't have ever joined. Finland shares 700 or 800 miles of border with Russia. Pootin going to do anything about that? I think not. The Russians got their asses handed to them the last time they tried to eff with the Fins.
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Are you sure about that? What is Turkiye saying about this?
 
#53,097
#53,097
Needing to update the list...

Finland and Sweden join NATO
Strike on Wagner Group HQ
Patriot missiles
Oil price cap
Bakhmut is not strategically important
Kherson Kherson Kherson
MH-17
"f*** the EU.."
Kerch Bridge
Article 5
100k Russians dead
Stealing chips from washing machines/refrigerators/televisions
Institute for the Study of War
"Ruble will be rubble"
Million Man Ukrainian army
McDonalds/IKEA/Coca Cola/H&M/Louis Vuitton
Long lines at ATMs
Eggs
Russia running out of missiles/drones
Russia can't fight in winter/frostbite
Polish Mig-29s
Javelina
Azovstal "evacuation"
Stingers
No fly zones
40 mile caravan outside of Kyiv
Switchblade drones
Ghost of Kiev
Obese General
Kremlin Coup
Blood Cancer
Parkinsons
HIMARS
A-10 Warthogs
Abrams tanks
I saw it on the evening news
It must be true if it's on Twitter
100 Billion will bring Russia to its knees
Snake Island
Meat grinder
Game changers
Ukrainian Nazis are no big deal
Lukashenko's breath mints
Tooth Fairy
Soviet Union still exists
Trailer Park of the world
Pootin
Pootin Stooges
Larry Moe Curly
 
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#53,098
#53,098
Pacer92 said:
Finland doesn’t need NATO…the MIC and corrupt politicians need Finland though.

First off, this isn’t 1940. Secondly, if and when they are an official member…the ball will be in Finland’s court. What kind of play they want to make is up to them.
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Well Finland wants to join, so I guess that Russia will now have NATO on their door step.
 
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#53,100
#53,100
Pacer92 said:
Finland doesn’t need NATO…the MIC and corrupt politicians need Finland though.

First off, this isn’t 1940. Secondly, if and when they are an official member…the ball will be in Finland’s court. What kind of play they want to make is up to them.
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And I agree that Finland doesn't need NATO. they can handle Russia on their own. They have proven that before.
 
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