War in Ukraine

[vols40]

You must be a truly incredible person. And I mean that literally.

I really am.

 

[vols40]

So are we all agreed that Progozhin's only chance to be alive this time next year is if Putin is out of power?

If we think that, certainly he does, too.

He is in a unique position in that Wagner is widely supported by Russians. Putin knows this and the certain destruction of this group would have been wildly unpopular. Progozhin knew this as well. So you have a certain lose lose on both sides. This is the only thing that makes sense as to why this "well oiled machine" stopped what some people were calling certain doom for Moscow this weekend.

 

[KB5252]

Ukraine to hold elections after war ends, says Zelenskyy



Saint Vlad postponing election until after the war ends. I'm telling you there is no good side in this conflict.

Would you be ok if President Trump postponing the election until the war on terror ended?

Lmao

Are you aware of the countries laws regarding these matters?

You don't have to answer..... It's a rhetorical question.

 

[KB5252]

So are we all agreed that Progozhin's only chance to be alive this time next year is if Putin is out of power?

If we think that, certainly he does, too.

He's a threat to anyone and everyone. The only way he makes it is of he helps the next guy get to power. That's not going to happen now that he's banished.

Edit to add: He's still dependant on the very people he attempted to force out...... The Russian mod...... How willing do you think they will be too supply him now? Is Belarus going to supply directly? That's a joke. He's done.

 

[volbound1700]

I would love to see the actual citation on Putin saying he was "too afraid."

Look it up, I am tired of Googling for people that are too lazy to read for themselves.

 

[volbound1700]

Oh please. He knew Trump was in the bag. He just underestimated Ukraine, Zelensky, NATO, and Biden, by doing it now. I 100% guarantee you he wishes now that he'd done it when Trump was POTUS.

He shouldn't have done it at all. Frankly, NATO and USA haven't done as much as you are touting. Ukrainians are what are winning this war and not NATO. The biggest victories were managed prior to even NATO sending equipment.

 

[volbound1700]

Ukraine to hold elections after war ends, says Zelenskyy



Saint Vlad postponing election until after the war ends. I'm telling you there is no good side in this conflict.

Would you be ok if President Trump postponing the election until the war on terror ended?

Lmao

That isn't a good look for Ukraine. USA still continued elections during Civil War, Vietnam, and WW2. UK also held elections during war time.

 

[MontyPython]

That isn't a good look for Ukraine. USA still continued elections during Civil War, Vietnam, and WW2. UK also held elections during war time.

FWIW Lincoln suspended Habeus Corpus during the war. That's far worse than not holding elections.

 

[LouderVol]

If they allow Wagner to operate out of Belarus that is the same as active participation. They will have become the defacto sponsor of Wagner.

That's where my concern with Poland entering comes from.

Russia has sent troops over the Belarussian border already. They have launched missiles and aircraft from Belarus already. They stage, weapons, hospitals, troops there, knowing they can do so freely because Ukraine won't attack another country.

I would consider Belarus at least as involved any nation from the west, and in reality more so considering Russia launches attacks from their territory.

 

[Burhead]

Ukraine to hold elections after war ends, says Zelenskyy



Saint Vlad postponing election until after the war ends. I'm telling you there is no good side in this conflict.

Would you be ok if President Trump postponing the election until the war on terror ended?

Lmao

The Brits postponed elections until after the Second World War ended. This isn't what you're making it out to be.

 

[LouderVol]

No matter how much you try to change the subject my statement is still fact. I have said before I have zero interest in either of these two countries.

It's worth noting that is it the Donbas region??? Didn't they recently vote to be part of Russia? I will say up front that may be wrong, but if that is the case then what claim does Zelenski and the rest of Ukraine have to an area that has basically rejected them?

I am with you on the Trump side of this particular argument, the situation got worse under Obama and Biden and stayed put for Trump. They can make whatever excuse they want, but those are the facts, no matter the cause. If something happens under one's presidency you get the blame or acclaim. But the vote for annexation was complete bs for multiple reasons.

1. Russia didn't hold all the territory they have claimed to annex, and thus didn't hold the vote in the entire area.
2. They held the vote under the threat of violence, no way to consider that a fair vote. They were literally going house to house ballot harvesting with guys armed with AKs and PKMs. They also declared martial law in the area to hold the vote, so there were no chances for organization, or free speech.
3. If the ballot was like it was in Crimea which went through the exact same process the choice on the ballot was: 1. Join Russia. 2 *fill in the blank*. Remaining independent wasn't on the ballot, despite that being the most popular poll option, and rejoining Ukraine wasn't an option.
4. You can't justify invasion with after the fact voting. Donbas only broke away from Ukraine after Russia invaded in 2014, not before. The vote happened in 2022, that is 8 years way too late.
5. during one of the Minsk ceasefires when they were evacuating, something like 80% of the population who chose to flee went to Ukraine rather than stay or go to Russia. It was so much that Russia stopped sending the civilians, claiming they didn't have the capacity, and sent the rest to Siberia. Lets move back the pre2014 population and hold that vote in the whole area before we consider it legitimate. And the Russians also shelled some of those civilian convoys, and of course claimed it was Ukraine shelling the civilians fleeing to Ukraine.....

 

[clarksvol00]

A Vandy grad maybe?

I was assuming @vols40 went to one of those private high schools that takes in 10 or 15 kids a year who failed out or got expelled.

 

[LouderVol]

Ukraine to hold elections after war ends, says Zelenskyy



Saint Vlad postponing election until after the war ends. I'm telling you there is no good side in this conflict.

Would you be ok if President Trump postponing the election until the war on terror ended?

Lmao

Trump floats delaying the election, but he can't do that

“With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history," Trump tweeted. "It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???”

seems to be exactly what Trump's stance was, delay the vote.

 

[LouderVol]

Lmao yes that was the funny part. "The Constitution" what are the chances martial law is still declared well past when the Presidential election is supposed to be held?

uh, if Russian troops are on their territory, very high. likely 100%. just like it would be for every nation.

 

[LouderVol]

So Ukraine this past weekend had the greatest 25,000 mercenaries in the world marching "towards Moscow" not "spilling any blood" yet Ukraine did nothing. You contend that Russia may be on the verge of potentially "folding quickly?"

There is zero chance that with the current President we have Martial law ends in Ukraine before the US Presidential election of 2024.

the quote from Napeleon comes to mind: "When you see your enemy destroying itself, never interfere." Outside threats have a way of unifying warring groups.

why would you expect martial law to end when they are still at war? are they supposed to trust Russia not to do anything during the Ukrainian election season?

 

[n_huffhines]

Look it up, I am tired of Googling for people that are too lazy to read for themselves.

BS artist^

I googled it. Found Putin saying Trump is unpredictable. You made up the rest.

Don't claim "citations" when you can't actually come up with the citations. Claiming somebody said something is not a citation.

 

[KB5252]

Russia has sent troops over the Belarussian border already. They have launched missiles and aircraft from Belarus already. They stage, weapons, hospitals, troops there, knowing they can do so freely because Ukraine won't attack another country.

I would consider Belarus at least as involved any nation from the west, and in reality more so considering Russia launches attacks from their territory.

I don't disagree, but Wagner is a different story. If Wagner, a private military force with a reputation for bad actions, were to begin operating out of Belarus that ups the ante and may just be the straw that gets Poland involved.

 

[Septic]

That isn't a good look for Ukraine. USA still continued elections during Civil War, Vietnam, and WW2. UK also held elections during war time.

Shh.

Nearly 20% of Ukrainians fled the country due to the war. In the examples you cited, how many Americans or Brits fled their country?

No rational person is blaming the Ukrainians for not holding elections while their capital is being terrorized by the orcs.

 

[LouderVol]

That isn't a good look for Ukraine. USA still continued elections during Civil War, Vietnam, and WW2. UK also held elections during war time.

none of those conflicts involved foreign troops on our (voting) soil.

The war of 1812 would have been a better reference.

 

[Septic]

BS artist^

I googled it. Found Putin saying Trump is unpredictable. You made up the rest.

Don't claim "citations" when you can't actually come up with the citations. Claiming somebody said something is not a citation.

@W.TN.Orange Blood Would just saying you're being naive for not accepting his statement of fact without any shred of actual evidence.

 

[n_huffhines]

This guy is awesome. I have more trust in him then just about anybody. Waded thru all the covid BS better than anybody.

Plain English with Derek Thompson - What Just Happened in Russia This Weekend? on Stitcher

 

[apevol]

This guy is awesome. I have more trust in him then just about anybody. Waded thru all the covid BS better than anybody.

Plain English with Derek Thompson - What Just Happened in Russia This Weekend? on Stitcher

You got a summary? I don't have the app

 

[n_huffhines]

You got a summary? I don't have the app

I'm sure it's on whatever app you use. But you can also listen here:

What Just Happened in Russia This Weekend?

I'm only a little bit through it so far. Mostly just given a brief overview and background, so far. I'll take notes.

 

[MontyPython]

Rural TN (not east tn) public school grad, University of Tennessee grad, and another Tennessee public university post-grad. I know I will never be as smart as @vols40, even though he went to private school and doesn't know how capitalization works.

Chin up... give 40 props for keeping it realz.

Fo sho.

 

[n_huffhines]

You got a summary? I don't have the app

- Wagner group named for the composer (Hitler's favorite).
- not a merc group in the traditional sense because they are really only for hire to the Russians.
- WG has taken on a much bigger role over time in the Ukraine efforts because this has not gone according to plan.
- Russia has undersupplied WG and WG has bailed them out so many times, while getting put into the worst situations.
- guest (Paul Poast U of Chicago) says the main trigger point is that the Russian MoD was trying to change the deal and completely take over the WG.
- the labels we put on this were misleading. this was not a coup, mutiny, or insurrection. this was probably more of a bargaining tactic.
- so what was Prigozhin trying to do? it seems he was just trying to maintain autonomy. guest surmises WG didn't have a plan if Putin didn't back down. it's not clear why he thought this was the best way to go about it. it probably would have been better to do a "sit-in" where they just refuse to fight.
- surmising, on his way to Moscow, Prigozhin realizes how tenuous his position is and strikes a deal to give up the WG in Ukraine specifically and to go to Belarus.
- as Americans, we tend to look at everything like it has geopolitical causes/meaning. For example, so many immediately thought the CIA was backing WG in this. This was just an interpersonal squabble.
- although Prigozhin might be in serious danger from assassination, the reason Putin can pull an about face on someone he called a "traitor" is he cannot win Ukraine without WG. He also can't afford to throw thousands of soldiers that he needs into prison. He's backed into a corner. If Putin feels like he can still have the WG personnel, then Prigozhin loses any value to him and is a goner.
- this war and this conflict with WG all got out of hand because Putin has surrounded himself with a cocoon of yes men who have blinded him. It's also possible Putin doesn't believe his aides when they tell him something is wrong because he sees these callouts as excuses for the failures of the person reporting them.