What I've been thinking on Jones resume

#51
#51
burntorangeVOLffle said:
Do you really believe that? I guess Richt had the foresight to know they would get a PI call in the endzone.
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Of course I believe that. GA had one timeout and if you did the math, they would get the ball back with 15 seconds down by a field goal. He had more confidence in his full offense going the length of the field with 1:30. Also, Neal never ran 5 yards without getting touched all day.
 
#52
#52
Other_Guy said:
Obvious the 1st thing I think about is how he replaced Brain Kelly at both stops and wonder if that is a bad thing that helps boost his results as a coach. Of course, Kelly took both schools to conference titles in3 years at each.

Then I think, Jones walked into a stable, good program and took MAC and BE talent and had success against MAC and BE talent. He beat N Illinois at CMU for their 1st win against them since 98 and had their 1st win at home against W Michigan since 93. He lost only 3 games in MAC play in 3 years.

He then tied for 1st in consecutive years (after a 4-8 start) at Cincy, again with BE talent against BE talent. Sure, he walked into solid programs, but continuing to win against the same level conference proves coaching.

I'll be glad when he has a potentially great team of good recruits so we can actually see if he can coach.

I know Ive post a lot lately, so if anyone wants me to chill on the posts I will lol :hi:
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Me, personally, I don't think that Urban Myers can win at Florida. I know, he won some games at Utah, but Utah is not in the S.E.C. Hell, we aren't even sure if he can recruit to Florida. Urban will probably be a bust.

I don't see Pearl being a success at U.T. Hell, what is University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee??? He hasn't played the likes of Kentucky or Florida, which are on our schedules. Once again, Hamilton has made a bad hire...

Did anyone see where Michigan State hired some young guy from the University of Toledo? Some guy named Nick Saban. His father was an NFL coach by the name of Lou Saban. Why the hell would they hire someone who coached at Toledo. Super bad hire!!!

Wow, I think we found an Athletic Director who is worse than Hamilton. Did you see where Ohio State hired the coach from Youngstown State? The guy looks like a nerd and wears sweaters. Just because he can win on a lower division doesn't mean he can win at Ohio State. Huge mistake.....
 
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#53
#53
daj2576 said:
This is really an interesting conversation and I appreciate your thoughtfulness and intellect. Here is the best illustration that I can create. Saban is Fulmer, with the ability to consistently draw the best talent in the SEC. When Fulmer had top talent, he won a ton of games, but he even dropped one or two he shouldn't have (think Memphis). Fulmer's decline was directly related to his wild swings in recruiting that came about due to other coaches who rose up and took away his fertile recruiting beds.

Saban lives by talent, not by scheme. Eventually a coach will come along that can match his talent, and run a scheme that defeats his style of defensive play. You have seen flashes of that from Meyer, Sumlin, Spurrier, Chizik/Malzahn. That is the answer, but too often guys like Petrino who run a system that is very powerful, forget that you need increasingly better players. That is why people think the spread or read option fails. No team runs that system who out-recruits Saban, or even recruits near him. Auburn is the closest in terms of raw talent. It will be interesting to see how Saban handles Auburn this year.

So yes, what Saban is doing IS good coaching. There are coaches who could be given similar talent and not win nearly as many games (Brown, Kiff, Chizik, Muschamp). My hypothesis, however, is that there are probably three or four times as many who could be given Saban's roster and do what he is doing (if recruiting wasn't a part of their job requirement).
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Thanks, man. It's a pleasure to be able to debate a little ball in a civilized fashion, so I enjoy this quite a bit.

You probably are correct that there are many coaches schematically-speaking who could do what Saban has done with the talent he has recruited. But that being said, being a "good coach" these days includes being responsible for all three phases of coaching: 1) recruitment, 2) development, 3) game management.

Now, let's compare Saban to Fulmer. Both were or are top-notch recruiters, so obviously that's covered. However, it's in the next two aspects that I think they begin to diverge. Saban is a master developer of talent. He's been a longtime HC and an NFL coordinator. He's learned under some of the best in the game. Not only that, but he's gathered in what he's learned and added his own knowledge to it. This is, of course, his "process". Fulmer on the other hand, while a decent enough OL coach and OC, leaned heavily on Cutcliffe and Chavis to develop the talent that he recruited. Without them, especially Cut, his record suffered pretty significantly. Finally, when it comes to game management, while neither is what I would call sterling, I rarely see Saban make the kind of clock management and playcalling mistakes that seemed to plague Fulmer from time to time.

So, in that context, what I'm taking away from your side is that the true measure of Saban's skill as a coach will come if and when his recruiting starts to suffer. That's fair, although I think it's necessary to point out that he also did quite well at MSU and Toledo without the advantage of far superior talent. I think it's because of his development, but I suppose we'll certainly find out. I also agree with you that it will be interesting to see how he deals with a resurgent Auburn read-option offense minus the catalyst that made it tick 3 years ago. Nick Marshall is a solid player, but not one anybody will ever mistake for Newton or Manziel. If the Barn beats Bama this year, it will signify that it's the system that can beat him and not just the player.
 
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#54
#54
BanditVol said:
LOVE the analogy, huge Asimov/Foundation fan here.

But you are giving Saban way too much credit comparing him to Seldon. Seldon was a genius. As pointed out above, Saban mostly just stockpiles an enormous amount of talent. Yes, he gets performance out of that talent. But give any coach in the country...well almost any coach....Saban-like talent and they also would win a ton of games.

In short, Saban has an overwhelming edge in talent every game...even against LSU, Florida, Auburn and Georgia, other SEC teams that have recruited well, just not as well as Saban. He then gets that talent to execute...but he doesn't fool anyone with Xs and Os like the OBC...he just gets his overwhelming talent advantage to execute.

I would love to see what he would do with Mississippi State talent. He had similar at Michigan State and was pretty average....although for Michigan State it was good.
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Nice, I'm glad someone got the reference. It seemed to me to be particularly apt.

Again, you make some good points about Saban's talent, and I don't disagree that there are many coaches who would win a lot with his roster.

That being said, I keep seeing bits about Saban's Xs and Os pop up. I would never argue that his systems are not simplistic - with the exception of his adaption of the 3-4 defense and his advanced secondary coverage, they certainly are. But this doesn't mean that he couldn't out-scheme or out-coach anyone, if he had to. He just doesn't need to and he probably doesn't believe in it. His recruiting is good, no doubt about that, but it's not the real reason he succeeds. He succeeds because he recruits AND he develops. His developmental "process" is second to none, and it's the reason he can keep on recruiting the way he does. Talented players want to go play for a coach they know will get them ready for the league. It's really that simple. I don't think he gets the best recruits by being a particularly likable guy.

The secret to Nick Saban is that there really is no secret. He simply executes all three phases of coaching with total efficiency. And that's why he wins.
 
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#55
#55
daj2576 said:
Did you stop watching football in 2008? Good lord, don't look now but UT fired Fulmer, hired the former coach of the Raiders who left to coach USC to get fired. UT hired Vincent Dooley's son, who didn't work out. Now, Tennessee has the coach who was coaching Central Michigan the last time you knew anything about football.

Muschamp (the same guy who was DC at Texas before your coma) won 11 games last year at Florida and he is still the biggest under performing coach in the SEC. In your absence, Auburn hired Gene Chizik who won a national championship, stopped performing, and was unceremoniously ran out of town.
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Um, so an extremely successful and great coach wins a national championship, has a losing season and suddenly becomes as inept of a coach as Kiffin and Dools? Wow dude awesome logic. Since Brown is extremely similar to Fulmer, you are basically saying Fulmer is as inept as Dooley. And Chizik didn't win a NC, Newton did.
 
#56
#56
CBJ resume should say, i will spend your money. I will dress your players in the best. I will feed them the best. I will be their friend. I will reach out to former players and coaches. I will say all the right things. Winning will be an after thought.
 
#57
#57
This staff MUST prove that it can develop talent once it arrives on campus. It is something that has plagued this program since mid 2000s other than a select few "freak" athletes we have seen some very high profile athletes come through this school looking like total busts, some we see go above and beyond in the NFL.

When you have a large number of players come in that have offers from top schools in America, only to have that majority under perform, it has to reflect the coaches and their ability, or lack there of, to develop said players and put them in the proper position to win.
 
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#58
#58
vol2002 said:
Anybody doubting Butch 10 games in, based on how we preformed against three straight top 10 teams while using a true freshman quarterback and a roster that is severely undermanned is, in a word: AN IDIOT!!!!

All such folks should be flipped to ignore. (You can unignore them in 2016, if we are still losing by 30 points to these teams).
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Hear hear my good man. Jolly good post. They are definitively idiotic scoundrels
Posted via VolNation Mobile
 
#59
#59
Agree OP. Our previous coach had to hold his breath to beat UAB in 2 OTs in 2010, managed to lose to UK in 2011, win only one SEC game that year while finishing dead last in the SEC east, then managed to barely finish out ahead of UK his final year before he was mercifully fired(one could argue we would've lost that UK game if he was still on the sideline).

When Kiffin the scumbag took over we were at something like 65 scholarship athletes which resulted in some walkons having to start out of that class, Kiffin brought in a highly rated recruiting class but almost all of those kids left at some point due to academics, illegal activities, general malcontent, etc. Dooley's classes weren't as highly rated and we got some decent talent but it was usually other programs leftovers and generally we struggled to fill a full class with some last minute underrated players. Attrition for our last few class is almost double that of our SEC opponents as well.

Jones has very, very little to work with and even less that fits his system. I know some will look at this and just yell about excuses but that's where we're at currently. A program with close to 50 different coaches, below average recruiting compared to our conference, and twice the attrition rate of our conference.

Now with all of that in mind and the schedule we have played this year is there anyone still curious as to why this team is "under-performing"?
 
#60
#60
some of you need to read daj's posts more carefully.

he is not saying that talent level is the only thing that matters, or that it has 100% predictive value. he is saying that it is the most important quantitative factor, and it can be consistently used to make some very interesting and valid conclusions, both prospectively and retrospectively.

daj's information is a lot more sensical and accurate than the 1000's of posts here saying that since CBJ wears an orange tie, wanted a job that pays him $3mil/year, has some cute sayings, and is "our" coach, he is guaranteed to win championships at UT.
 
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#61
#61
wylo said:
richt won. Did not get out coached by jones. Georgia drove the length of the field and scored to force ot. If anyone got out coached, it was us. Personally i believe it was a draw on coaching.

Did the usa coach out coach cbj? Following your georgia logic, just staying close constitutes out coaching. So decide.


Spurrier got cute and conservative. It cost him. It also took a miracle grab to get in fg range. But i'll conceed that one to you.
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just shut up
 
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#62
#62
daj2576 said:
Some key things to consider: 1) Jones recruited better than the previous year, every year he was at Cincy. Kelly's recruiting averages took big leaps each year he was at Cincy and Jones built on that. Bottom line, Jones can recruit independent of Kelly. 2) As you mentioned, Jones only won 4 games his first year at Cincy, that doesn't necessarily sell the idea that he inherited something incredible. The interesting thing is that those 4 wins are exactly what talent averages predicted his roster would win. Off the top of my head, I believe that Kelly left Jones a pretty unimpressive roster with some serious holes after he left for ND. Bottom line: Jones took that step back and then over-performed by 2-3 games a season 3) This is the first year that it seems that Jones will have a roster that slightly under-performs (1 game below, if we win out. That one loss is against an over-performing Mizzou team). 4) Even at one game below, it has been several years since UT had a coach that didn't have a far larger negative effect on talent. That goes back to Fulmer's tenure. Talent has been waning at UT over the past decade.

Here are some interesting charts that show recruiting and wins and how well they correlate at UT. Also visit this link to see how recruiting averages predict about 80% of the games played in the SEC this year. I keep it updated as close to real time as possible.

https://docs.google.com/a/mybloodis...Qgwl-hyfdEpwUHpyWXUzY3JWRFU1Skc1UTRiZ2c&gid=0
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Nice work on the charts! Interesting to see that steady decline during the Dooley era, from 2009-2012. Guess he wasn't watering the bamboo at all... I think he was just peeing on the bamboo, and flapping his gums a lot.

:pilot: Romel Romel, showerin' technique, orange dog, bamboo waterin' bla bla bla.... anyone listenin' or care? :banghead2:
 
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#63
#63
NashVOL93 said:
Nice, I'm glad someone got the reference. It seemed to me to be particularly apt.

Again, you make some good points about Saban's talent, and I don't disagree that there are many coaches who would win a lot with his roster.


The secret to Nick Saban is that there really is no secret. He simply executes all three phases of coaching with total efficiency. And that's why he wins.
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Two points. One, my belief is not that players want to go to bammer, so much as they are enticed. But until they actually get busted, it's perhaps not that great a point. But regardless of the truth, let's be clear about one thing. Saban has recruited better than any coach in the history of the NCAA. He has been no. 1 in recruiting 5 of the last 6 years.

Above there are comparisons to Fulmer and Saban both being great recruiters. Saban actually blows Fulmer away. Fulmer had perhaps two no. 1 classes in his entire 16 years. I know he was no. 1 in 1994 (Peyton, Brandon Stewart, Nash, Goodrich, etc) and again one time in the 2000s. I can't be sure about 95-99 because the archives at Rivals only go back to 2002. But I can guarantee you that Fulmer was no where near Saban as a recruiter though he was really good.

I don't deny that Saban develops his talent very well. This is his second best asset. However, even in this area, it helps to have multiple players to choose from. One doesn't work? Then plug in another.

So here's the deal....let's take all that talent away from Saban and see what he does.

I think he would still get a lot out of the talent he has, but I think you have to look at Michigan State and say...meh, above average performance on the field at best. Because that's the last time he was not surrounded by a ton of talent.

Heck, he recruited about as well as Miles at LSU, and performed about as well.

Just look at his earlier performance WITHOUT 5 of 6 no. 1 recruiting classes. Speaks volumes.
 
#65
#65
vol2002 said:
Anybody doubting Butch 10 games in, based on how we preformed against three straight top 10 teams while using a true freshman quarterback and a roster that is severely undermanned is, in a word: AN IDIOT!!!!

All such folks should be flipped to ignore. (You can unignore them in 2016, if we are still losing by 30 points to these teams).
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That's 2 words. Just saying.:)
 
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#66
#66
Other_Guy said:
Yeah, 10 win seasons and multiple conference/division championships suck. I would hate to have Mack Brown as a coach.

Boys I've offivially found the dumbest post of all of Volnation in it's history.
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With the talent they have? Yes, he is right. They should be in BCS games every year, and national title games, and winning them, every 3 or so years.

I agree that Brown is Fulmer completely, at the tail end of his career.
 
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#67
#67
Butch is another Fulmer in that he's lived off the previous coach! He hasn't done anything-yet-to show/prove that he is by himself a good or great coach!
 
#68
#68
knoxvols11 said:
Butch is another Fulmer in that he's lived off the previous coach! He hasn't done anything-yet-to show/prove that he is by himself a good or great coach!
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Fulmer did a lot more than live off the last coach. Credibly only 93 and 94 can be attributed to whatever Fulmer inherited. Look at how good we were in 1995...and all the sophs we started that year. Nash, Manning, Goodrich, Raynoch, Wilson, and I am sure I have missed others. And Fulmer won it all in 1998, a full 5 years after Johnny left. 100% Fulmer players at that point.
 
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#70
#70
Other_Guy said:
Um, so an extremely successful and great coach wins a national championship, has a losing season and suddenly becomes as inept of a coach as Kiffin and Dools? Wow dude awesome logic. Since Brown is extremely similar to Fulmer, you are basically saying Fulmer is as inept as Dooley. And Chizik didn't win a NC, Newton did.
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Interesting that you point out that Newton was the reason for Chizik's national championship, but fail to mention that Young might have had a hand in Brown's. In fact, the only BCS title game where the team with a lower talent average won was Brown/Young in 2005.

Chizik's team had better recruiting averages than Oregon. About 90% of the time, with the lone exception being Brown/Young, the team with the higher talent average wins a BCS championship.

So if you want to use Newton as the reason for Chizik's success, perhaps you should write off a national championship, some conference championships and about 30 of Brown's wins to Vince Young.

Moving on...

While there are similarities between Brown and Fulmer, let's talk about the differences because those are key when distinguishing one from the other. See the attachment below.

Look at Mack Brown's recruiting versus both the BIG XII and the nation. Since his loss to Bama in the national championship, his talent has continually increased to averaging tops in the BIG XII and top 5 in the country. In that same span, (2010-present) as his talent should be increasing, he has lost 18 games. In 3.75 seasons, with better and increasing talent, he has lost more games than than he did the previous 9 seasons combined. This is what makes him the biggest under-performing coach in the nation.

The threshold to getting fired for under-performance is 4 games below what your talent predicts you win (See: Dooley, Kiff, Chizik and likely Muschamp). As Texas has tops talent in the Big XII, only about 1 loss a season can even be explainable (arguably that loss should come to Oklahoma). That means he has broken the 4 game threshold below talent 2 of the past 3 years, and with four losses last year (if you discount one as just bad luck, see Saban) he was perilously close.

Find a coach who has been allowed to under-perform by those margins in the nation. You will be looking for awhile.

Fulmer, whose recruiting showed a downward trend, with wild fluctuations, performed about as talent would predict (along a downward arc). The SEC's recruiting rose in relation to UT as Fulmer's ability to get talent dwindled. This is almost an unrecoverable state of events, but at least is explainable as talent=wins about 70% of the time.
 

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#72
#72
vol2002 said:
Anybody doubting Butch 10 games in, based on how we preformed against three straight top 10 teams while using a true freshman quarterback and a roster that is severely undermanned is, in a word: AN IDIOT!!!!

All such folks should be flipped to ignore. (You can unignore them in 2016, if we are still losing by 30 points to these teams).
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you are right my friend.everyone should get behind this team and win these last 2 games.
 
#74
#74
BanditVol said:
Two points. One, my belief is not that players want to go to bammer, so much as they are enticed. But until they actually get busted, it's perhaps not that great a point. But regardless of the truth, let's be clear about one thing. Saban has recruited better than any coach in the history of the NCAA. He has been no. 1 in recruiting 5 of the last 6 years.

Above there are comparisons to Fulmer and Saban both being great recruiters. Saban actually blows Fulmer away. Fulmer had perhaps two no. 1 classes in his entire 16 years. I know he was no. 1 in 1994 (Peyton, Brandon Stewart, Nash, Goodrich, etc) and again one time in the 2000s. I can't be sure about 95-99 because the archives at Rivals only go back to 2002. But I can guarantee you that Fulmer was no where near Saban as a recruiter though he was really good.

I don't deny that Saban develops his talent very well. This is his second best asset. However, even in this area, it helps to have multiple players to choose from. One doesn't work? Then plug in another.

So here's the deal....let's take all that talent away from Saban and see what he does.

I think he would still get a lot out of the talent he has, but I think you have to look at Michigan State and say...meh, above average performance on the field at best. Because that's the last time he was not surrounded by a ton of talent.

Heck, he recruited about as well as Miles at LSU, and performed about as well.

Just look at his earlier performance WITHOUT 5 of 6 no. 1 recruiting classes. Speaks volumes.
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Sure. Maybe so. Maybe his success has been largely because of his recruiting. But this is still to his credit - ESPECIALLY considering that he's not the most likable of guys. After seeing the kind of success that Butch Jones, a very likable guy, has had recruiting top-notch talent to a school that went 5-7 last season and is even now still struggling for mere bowl eligibility, is it really so hard to believe that top-notch talent might also want to go play for a proven, multiple-championship winning coach with a track record of developing NFL talent? I personally don't think so. And while it's fun to speculate, I really don't think the Alabama program itself has to pay players to come. Boosters may be a different story.

Whether Nick Saban would succeed minus the talent he has just really isn't relevant. The fact is, he DOES have this talent, and until he starts getting reliably getting beaten in recruiting, he's not going to start getting reliably beaten on the field. "The Process" is largely self-sustaining. Recruiting is still the Number One job of a college football coach, and as long as he's still the best at recruiting, he will remain the best coach.
 
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