Would you be happy with 6-6 (regular season) in 2013?

[AllVolForLife_16]

not saying they aren't "beatable" just saying that we are less likely to win than lose

Oh I agree. We're underdogs going in for sure, but I think Butch will pull out a win against a legit SEC East opponent this year. Most likely either Georgia or South Carolina IMO. 7-5 and then 8-5 after a bowl win would make me happy though.

 

[pualsline]

Oh I agree. We're underdogs going in for sure, but I think Butch will pull out a win against a legit SEC East opponent this year. Most likely either Georgia or South Carolina IMO. 7-5 and then 8-5 after a bowl win would make me happy though.

gotcha

 

[sjt18]

I will agree the personnel is better, but not the situation.

How can you say that? All I can think of is that you have blocked the situation that Fulmer left out and also the dramatics of Kiffin's departure.

Fulmer's last few years were marked by persistent instances of talented players getting booted for "violations of team rules" and showing up on police blotters. Kiffin took a step in the right direction toward cleaning up discipline problems (in spite of being highly undisciplined himself) but then made UT look even more second class by jumping at USCw with very little if any consideration for staying.

Fulmer's recruiting rankings still looked OK for the most part... He did have that 35th ranked class that played so prominently into Kiffin's year and Dooley's first 2. The bigger problem though was that there was no discipline or support structures within the program to keep those guys eligible.

Yea Jones has a great OL, but essentially no QB with SEC playing time,

That isn't true. Worley had a trial by fire behind a fairly weak OL and with no running game. Every team replaces their QB eventually. Most of the time they have as little or less experience than Worley. TAM started a QB last year who was a RS Fr. Manning, Clausen, Ainge, and Bray all started as Fr.

brand new receiving corps across the board

This could be a problem. You have to hope that the recruiting analysts were not wrong about ALL of the 4* who will get a shot at the position... and were maybe wrong about a lower rated player or two... AND that Jones and Co can coach them up. There is talent. I would say Jones has never coached a team with more WR talent than the one he will have this fall.

Both this and the QB situation are a test of whether this staff can coach or not. There is raw talent available to them. There is time to get them ready.

and still no feature back.

Kiffin inherited a "never was" named Hardesty who had never stayed healthy. DD inherited another "never was" in Poole who didn't exactly want to go along with the program.

By that standard, Jones inherits a full cupboard.

So you have a great OL with no one around them that has ever done anything with the ball.

It is easy both with this and life in general to look at your own problems and blow them out of proportion by not putting them in the perspective of everyone's problems.

USCe put 6 or 7 players in the draft and according to the recruiting svcs has not recruited well enough to replace them. UGA and UF both put 8 players in the draft who were critical to their success last year. Because of UT's recent lack of success and their success you might have more confidence that they will fill those voids. But they have unknowns just like the Vols do.

Also, the mess that was that defense last year doesn't just shake that off or unlearn being that dreadful overnight. Dooley ran a slop program, and so that is want Jone inherited, slop.

Dooley and especially his last staff did not coach well as a unit and to some degree as individuals.

Coaching can fix any technique problems pretty quickly. Schemes, playcalling, and motivation can make a huge difference "overnight".

I will be VERY surprised if UT's D isn't back in the 21-24 ppg range this fall. They'll do that if they just go back to a "bend, don't break" philosophy that keeps everything in front of them.

But you are into FACTs. The fact I never focused solely on personnel just seemed to miss your brain altogether.

Yes. I am into facts... and logical reasoning... and perspective. I don't over react to the tingle up my leg or nervousness about unknowns.

I do apologize though. That was a cheap shot when you were honestly discussing this in a civil manner. It was unnecessary on my part.
IF... BIG OL' GIANT IF... Jones and this staff can coach then 7 wins is the minimum we should expect. If they win less without several critical injuries then he more than likely isn't the right guy to win championships at UT.

 

[sjt18]

It ALL comes down to coaching. If Jones is "the guy" to get UT back to the very top then he will win more than 6 games this year. If he wins 6 or less than he most likely is NOT the guy.

 

[omghulkhands]

Having watched our QB's play in the OW game and looking at our schedule I would be THRILLED to win 6

 

[Pulscifer]

6-6 with a bowl win.

 

[sjt18]

Having watched our QB's play in the OW game and looking at our schedule I would be THRILLED to win 6

Then what would satisfy you next year? 5? 4? 3?

I ask because after this year, Jones loses his whole OL, Neal, his starting front 4 on D plus one or two first back ups, at least 3 of his 4 top LB's... IOW's, the roster likely takes a big step back from where it is now.

If Jones and Co cannot coach up this current group of well developed, experienced, and talented players then fill the holes then why on earth would we expect better with a team full of Fr playing big roles?

"Thrilled" with 6-6 considering UT's talent advantage over at least 7 opponents... wow. What have the Vols become?

 

[99gator]

Then what would satisfy you next year? 5? 4? 3?

I ask because after this year, Jones loses his whole OL, Neal, his starting front 4 on D plus one or two first back ups, at least 3 of his 4 top LB's... IOW's, the roster likely takes a big step back from where it is now.

If Jones and Co cannot coach up this current group of well developed, experienced, and talented players then fill the holes then why on earth would we expect better with a team full of Fr playing big roles?

"Thrilled" with 6-6 considering UT's talent advantage over at least 7 opponents... wow. What have the Vols become?

they are not well developed or talented.

you do not change a culture of losing in one season. it is extremely rare when it happens and i am open to hearing some examples because i can't think of any.

there is not one aspect of that team, outside of pass protection, that anyone can say with any conviction will be solid.

that defense, at best, is middle of the pack even if it improves to the level that you believe it will.

 

[omghulkhands]

Then what would satisfy you next year? 5? 4? 3?

I ask because after this year, Jones loses his whole OL, Neal, his starting front 4 on D plus one or two first back ups, at least 3 of his 4 top LB's... IOW's, the roster likely takes a big step back from where it is now.

If Jones and Co cannot coach up this current group of well developed, experienced, and talented players then fill the holes then why on earth would we expect better with a team full of Fr playing big roles?

"Thrilled" with 6-6 considering UT's talent advantage over at least 7 opponents... wow. What have the Vols become?

It is all relative. I honestly believe a good coaching staff could have won the east with our team last year, perhaps even done more with it. Hell, just don't lose Wilcox and maybe we could have won the east last year with an offense that good. This year I don't feel that way, at least going into the season.

So yes, we lost more talent than we brought in this year, we return a bunch of mediocre players, have nobody to trust at the most crucial position, we are installing a brand new offense and defense and have an even tougher schedule. So yes, again.....I would be thrilled to win more games than we did last year.

Next year again it will all be relative to the situation.

However, I do believe if we can get good play out of the QB position, which would be a stark contrast from what I saw at the OW game and from Worley in general, then I think we could win more and could realistically expect more.

 

[VolsRule]

beatable teams in 2013:

florida--their offense will be mediocre again and they lost a ton of talent on D
georgia--lost 3 superstars on D
usc--lost talent on both sides of the ball

 

[Boca Vol]

No one should be "happy" with a 6-6 season. However, these are difficult times for the program.

 

[sjt18]

they are not well developed or talented.

Yes. They are. McCullers and Couch are EXCELLENT talents. UT's OL is exceptional. Unless the recruiting svcs accomplished the amazing feat of overrating pretty much ALL of UT's players... then they have talent plus development in an SEC program plus experience against SEC competition.

They have been poorly coached in some respects... but he has talent to work with if he can coach. Not all bad experiences result in bad experience.

you do not change a culture of losing in one season. it is extremely rare when it happens and i am open to hearing some examples because i can't think of any.

Culture won't be his problem and I'm not talking necessarily about winning the East. I am talking about the absurd notion that Jones will have "succeeded" if he wins 6 games with the talent on THIS roster.

Jones own assertion is that this group has bought into his program better than any other he's had. He was 12-1 in his first season at Cincy with a team that didn't completely buy in... so expecting more than 6 wins at UT is asking too much?

But to answer this part directly and with emphasis... yes... there are examples. Brian Kelly at ND. Kevin Sumlin at TAM. Urban Meyer at UF. Saban at LSU. Hoke at Michigan. Pelini at Nebraska. For top shelf coaches, it is probably more accurate to say that they DO have an immediate and profound effect on W/L.

there is not one aspect of that team, outside of pass protection, that anyone can say with any conviction will be solid.

Two backs who avg'd around 5 ypc will return.

UT had the 4th highest ypc in the SEC last year... they were just better throwing it. UT's WR's will be just fine if Croom can stay healthy or one of the Fr provide the big target they need. Regardless, the WR group this fall will look nothing like the one this spring.

The defensive front 4 will be solid and the front 7 if they avoid injury. The secondary will be better if they can just keep things in front of them. If "solid" means as good as the D two years ago then I feel pretty good about the D being "solid" or a little better than that due to more depth and experience.

that defense, at best, is middle of the pack even if it improves to the level that you believe it will.

OK. So what you are saying is that a defense with more talent at every position only two years removed from being middle of the pack while starting a bunch of Fr and undersized DL's... has a ceiling of mid-pack assuming the coaching is alot better than last year?

UT will probably start 4 Srs on the DL all of whom were 4* prospects coming in. UT will start 2 Srs (or Maggitt) and a Jr who likely declares next spring at LB. They have talent if not success in the secondary.

 

[sjt18]

beatable teams in 2013:

florida--their offense will be mediocre again and they lost a ton of talent on D
georgia--lost 3 superstars on D
usc--lost talent on both sides of the ball

Another good point and reason I think Jones has a shot at "shocking" people if he is as great as he needs to be to EVER bring UT back. UF and UGA both put 8 guys in the NFL. They have recruited well but you can never say for certain that the guy stepping up will be as good as the guy who left.

I believe USCe put 7 or so in the draft and according to the recruiting sites they have NOT replenished their roster with the same caliber of players.

 

[sjt18]

When UT finds "the guy"... he will not be someone who produces 6 wins with a roster like Jones inherited. That is not a statement about whether he is/is not "the guy". Just saying that magic hire will be "shock and awe" right out of the gate.

 

[Orange Blazer]

Another good point and reason I think Jones has a shot at "shocking" people if he is as great as he needs to be to EVER bring UT back. UF and UGA both put 8 guys in the NFL. They have recruited well but you can never say for certain that the guy stepping up will be as good as the guy who left.

I believe USCe put 7 or so in the draft and according to the recruiting sites they have NOT replenished their roster with the same caliber of players.

USCjr and UGA are both winnable games at Neyland. On the road they would be losses.

 

[Orange Blazer]

When UT finds "the guy"... he will not be someone who produces 6 wins with a roster like Jones inherited. That is not a statement about whether he is/is not "the guy". Just saying that magic hire will be "shock and awe" right out of the gate.

I disagree. We have a brutal schedule. We have no playmakers on offense that are proven. Our Defense has potential to be good, but no guarentee. 6-6 would be acceptable for this year, 7-6 with a bowl win would be good.

 

[cityvol]

2013 TENNESSEE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE
08/31/13 vs. Austin Peay - Win
09/07/13 vs. Western Kentucky - Win
09/14/13 at Oregon - Loss
09/21/13 at Florida - Loss
09/28/13 vs. South Alabama - Win
10/05/13 vs. Georgia - Loss
10/19/13 vs. South Carolina - Loss
10/26/13 at Alabama - Loss
11/02/13 at Missouri - Win
11/09/13 vs. Auburn - Win
11/23/13 vs. Vanderbilt - Win
11/30/13 at Kentucky - Win

7-5 is not a fantasy.

 

[VFL1800FPD]

When UT finds "the guy"... he will not be someone who produces 6 wins with a roster like Jones inherited. That is not a statement about whether he is/is not "the guy". Just saying that magic hire will be "shock and awe" right out of the gate.

Saban 1st year at Bama - 7-6

 

[gnm53108]

2013 TENNESSEE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE
08/31/13 vs. Austin Peay - Win
09/07/13 vs. Western Kentucky - Win
09/14/13 at Oregon - Loss
09/21/13 at Florida - Loss
09/28/13 vs. South Alabama - Win
10/05/13 vs. Georgia - Loss
10/19/13 vs. South Carolina - Loss
10/26/13 at Alabama - Loss
11/02/13 at Missouri - Win
11/09/13 vs. Auburn - Win
11/23/13 vs. Vanderbilt - Win
11/30/13 at Kentucky - Win

7-5 is not a fantasy.

Certainly not my fantasy.

If CBJ can do that +1 I'd feel like he might be the one to get us back to championship football. +2 or more and I'd be almost certain.

 

[k-town_king]

Then what would satisfy you next year? 5? 4? 3?

I ask because after this year, Jones loses his whole OL, Neal, his starting front 4 on D plus one or two first back ups, at least 3 of his 4 top LB's... IOW's, the roster likely takes a big step back from where it is now.

If Jones and Co cannot coach up this current group of well developed, experienced, and talented players then fill the holes then why on earth would we expect better with a team full of Fr playing big roles?

"Thrilled" with 6-6 considering UT's talent advantage over at least 7 opponents... wow. What have the Vols become?

The only good unit that your hero Dooley left was the O line. The rest are unproven or under achievers.

 

[Vol4life25]

they are not well developed or talented.

you do not change a culture of losing in one season. it is extremely rare when it happens and i am open to hearing some examples because i can't think of any.

there is not one aspect of that team, outside of pass protection, that anyone can say with any conviction will be solid.

that defense, at best, is middle of the pack even if it improves to the level that you believe it will.

O line, RB and LB play will be solid and I'm 100% sure. (If we stay healthy)

 

[sjt18]

I disagree. We have a brutal schedule. We have no playmakers on offense that are proven. Our Defense has potential to be good, but no guarentee. 6-6 would be acceptable for this year, 7-6 with a bowl win would be good.

If you are looking for an average coach that does not get more out of a roster than the sum of its parts... then by all means. If you are looking for a guy who will bring championship caliber teams to UT... then no.

There are six teams on the schedule that an average coach should beat. There are 8 teams on the schedule that an above average coach should beat. There are 11 teams on the schedule that an emerging elite coach could beat though expecting more than 9 of the 11 would be fairly unrealistic.

 

[sjt18]

The only good unit that your hero Dooley left was the O line. The rest are unproven or under achievers.

I never held Dooley as a "hero" or anything of the sort. I advocated a RIGHT way of handling the management of the program and its coach. I defended him getting a sufficient chance to prove himself... and idiots took it for a defense of him. I guess it was because he was my hero that I predicted he would not be the UT coach after the '12 season... and predicted it in January '10? Or maybe it was because I said HERE that he should be fired... after he lost to USCe?

Don't be stupid when trying to poison the well.

But while we are at it... why on earth would you be willing to by happy with a 6-6 result from Jones considering you "knew" Dooley was no good? Just a reminder... Dooley's first team faced a MORE difficult schedule that included a highly ranked Oregon team plus Arkansas, Bama, and LSU from the West. He had no returning RB that had rushed for over 200 yds... in their career. He had no returning QB... at all as in none on the roster. He had one returning OL capable of starting... who had been beaten out by the Sullens bros the year before. He had no DT's. His best DE had a bum knee. Best LB was an undersized walk-on.

But somehow a 6-6 season with that team meant he was not the right coach for UT, right?

Couch, McCullers, Walls, Smith, Miller, Hood, O'Brien, J Williams, et al... that is very good talent to work with. Far better than 3 years ago.

UT has two QB's with SEC level talent and at least a year in a college program.

UT has two RB's that avg'd better than 4.5 ypc and combined to go over 1300 yds playing in a passing O.

Croom, Harris, Pig, Bowles, and North were all talented enough as HS prospects to get that "all important" fourth star from Rivals with North being rated the #2 WR in the country and Bowles being a former Army AA.

EVERYONE except maybe Bama has unproven players and unknowns.

 

[sjt18]

Saban 1st year at Bama - 7-6

Different situation but realistically should Bama have ever lost to ULM?

Saban had absolutely NOTHING to prove to anyone and especially recruits... Jones does. Saban had nothing to prove to fans... Jones does. Saban was NOT facing the kind of 2nd year roster attrition that Jones is. In fact, Saban's first class at Bama was very good and filled the holes that occurred. I do not blame Jones by any stretch but to not have a really tough year in '14 he needed more LB's and DL's in the '13 class. He will start Fr at LB next year and have youth throughout the two deep.

 

[sjt18]

2013 TENNESSEE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE
08/31/13 vs. Austin Peay - Win
09/07/13 vs. Western Kentucky - Win
09/14/13 at Oregon - Loss
09/21/13 at Florida - Loss
09/28/13 vs. South Alabama - Win
10/05/13 vs. Georgia - Loss
10/19/13 vs. South Carolina - Loss
10/26/13 at Alabama - Loss
11/02/13 at Missouri - Win
11/09/13 vs. Auburn - Win
11/23/13 vs. Vanderbilt - Win
11/30/13 at Kentucky - Win

7-5 is not a fantasy.

I think Auburn and USCe should be the bubble games. Winning both would be excellent. Winning one would meet or exceed the expectations of most fans and analysts... assuming he wins the other 6. A win against those two plus UGA would be exceptional and indicate that Jones might very well be "the guy".