Would you be happy with 6-6 (regular season) in 2013?

[VFL1800FPD]

If you are looking for an average coach that does not get more out of a roster than the sum of its parts... then by all means. If you are looking for a guy who will bring championship caliber teams to UT... then no.

There are six teams on the schedule that an average coach should beat. There are 8 teams on the schedule that an above average coach should beat. There are 11 teams on the schedule that an emerging elite coach could beat though expecting more than 9 of the 11 would be fairly unrealistic.

Maybe this would be right if you're talking about a coach who has been at a program long enough to estabilish his team, and one who is not relying on picking up the pieces of 3 different coaches in the past five years.

Your metric is flawed because it doesn't reflect that he is a coach in yr 1, with a new staff, new players, no starting QB as of now, who lost his 5 best offensive producers and is now relying on mostly inexperienced talent at the skill positions, and coming off one of the worst defensive performances in the history of our program, and whose opponents include 5 teams that will likely be in the preseason top 10, and 3 (Bama, UF, and Oregon) who have potential to be in the top 3.

To see why you're wrong, let's look at Nick Saban, who is unquestionably an elite coach. Therefore, in 2007, his first year at Bama, he fell under your "emerging elite coach" rubric, and in his first season, with Bama coming off of similar attrition that UT is facing now, his regular season opponents were Western Carolina, Vandy, Arky, UGA, FSU, Houston, OM, UT, LSU, Miss St., UL-Monroe, and Auburn. Those are 12 teams that an emerging elite coach "should" be able to beat, so it's "unrealistic" to expect anything above 10, according to your logic.

Saban won 6. Does that negate his current elite status? No. First years for coaches are unpredictable, and it's impossible to construct an accurate prediction for future sucess based on the record of his first year. There are just way too many factors to consider in a coach's first year. I do agree that a coach winning more games than he's supposed to win in his first season is a good indication of future success, but it is by no means a rule. Butch could very well have a 6-6 season this year and still be an elite coach on down the road (Saban went 12-0 in his second season, and we've all seen what he's done since then).

Recently, we as UT fans have been tending to overestimate our chances in every game, forgetting that if you take a step back, we really have question marks at nearly every position group, and that no one in the nation respects us as a football program anymore until we prove we can compete again. In 2013, we will likely be underdogs in 8 of our games (Ore., UF, UGA, USCe, Bama, Mizzou, Auburn, and Vandy). What about our past three seasons records (6-6, 5-7, 5-7, with the only SEC victories coming over UK, Vandy, and OM) suggests that a new coach will miraculously be able to pull 9 wins out of his butt?

Your quote "Though expecting more than 9 of the 11 would be fairly unrealistic" doesn't sense to me. I think most people are under the assumption that an 8 win season will be a very good start to the Butch jones era, meaning we beat at least 2 of the big 5 that we play. Heck, even 7 wins would be an excellent start, and would be an excellent indicator of Butch Jones' coaching prowess. I'm not going to see the W/L record as black and white either, I'll be mainly looking for a team that does not make silly mental mistakes, does not give up when they face adversity, gives 100% for 4 quarters, and embodies the Hard-hitting, no-nonsense, Neyland-style Football that is UT's tradition. If our team does all these things and turns out 6-6, i will still be satisfied and excited to see the progress that Butch Jones will make in year 2 with a full year of coaching under his belt.

Expecting 9 wins after the past 5 years is not just unrealistic, its completely outrageous. Hoping for 9+ wins, on the other hand, is our duty as fans.

 

[sjt18]

Maybe this would be right if you're talking about a coach who has been at a program long enough to estabilish his team, and one who is not relying on picking up the pieces of 3 different coaches in the past five years.

And I would certainly say that 7 wins that included a victory over USCe or Auburn but preferrably someone like UGA would be OK.

But these pieces are better players than he's ever coached. He won a lot of games at Cincy with far less talent. But the point is still... I am NOT talking about what is "reasonable" for a "good" coach to accomplish. If he's a "good" coach... he's unemployed 3 years from now.

I simply believe that it is VERY unlikely that he's "the guy" if he wins only 6 games against this schedule with this talent and experience.

Your metric is flawed because it doesn't reflect that he is a coach in yr 1, with a new staff, new players, no starting QB as of now, who lost his 5 best offensive producers and is now relying on mostly inexperienced talent at the skill positions, and coming off one of the worst defensive performances in the history of our program, and whose opponents include 5 teams that will likely be in the preseason top 10, and 3 (Bama, UF, and Oregon) who have potential to be in the top 3.

My metric is a test of whether he's a "great" coach or not. A "great" coach overcomes those challenges and wins more than 6 games. I'm not clamouring for 10 wins... just not "average".

To see why you're wrong, let's look at Nick Saban, who is unquestionably an elite coach.

I answered that already. Saban's first year was an anomaly. He had severe discipline problems within that team forcing him to cut a bunch of guys loose. They are not comparable circumstances.

Freeze and Sumlin make more comparable situations. Freeze increased the win total by 5 and Sumlin by 5. Sumlin in particular walked into a situation that looked very similar this time last year. UT doesn't likely have a Heisman winner at QB that no one has heard of... but I am not asking for 11 wins either. TAM had depth issues and a history of poor coaching a year ago. They had talent but subpar performance. They were able to reduce their ppg by 7 and increase their points scored by 5. Same guys... different coaching staff... except they went from a pretty mediocre league into the best division of the best conference in CFB.

First years for coaches are unpredictable, and it's impossible to construct an accurate prediction for future sucess based on the record of his first year.

The first part is true. The second part is not.

Jones inherits a lot of talent. He has a tough task putting it altogether. However his roster will be much worse next fall. So let's say he only wins 6 this year. The same level of coaching probably doesn't hit 6 wins in '14. Then... we are right back where we were with Dooley heading into last season- make or break. He needs to buy some credibility THIS YEAR to cover next year so his seat isn't scorching hot when he's finally dependent mostly on his own players.

Butch could very well have a 6-6 season this year and still be an elite coach on down the road (Saban went 12-0 in his second season, and we've all seen what he's done since then).

Maybe. But very unlikely he would become that at UT. If he's 6-6, 5-7, 8-4 in his first 3 years... he is unlikely to be coach in '16.

In 2013, we will likely be underdogs in 8 of our games (Ore., UF, UGA, USCe, Bama, Mizzou, Auburn, and Vandy). What about our past three seasons records (6-6, 5-7, 5-7, with the only SEC victories coming over UK, Vandy, and OM) suggests that a new coach will miraculously be able to pull 9 wins out of his butt?

Favored/unfavored does not matter. He has more talent to work with than six of his opponents. He has as much as two others.

Expecting 9 wins after the past 5 years is not just unrealistic, its completely outrageous. Hoping for 9+ wins, on the other hand, is our duty as fans.

Never said I expected it. I "expect" 7 or 8 if he's "the guy" to bring UT back to championships. Six means he's most likely another flash in the pan who will flame out and be replaced by the next great hope in 3 years.

I did say if he's an "elite" coach there are 11 teams on the schedule that he "could" beat. Even for an elite coach getting more than 9 would be pretty unrealistic.

 

[Vol_Maul]

None of the above. It is what it is. I would understand that record or worse, but happy or unhappy will not come into the discussion as far as Jones is concerned. If anything, I will just be even more pissed at Dooley. f*** Derek Dooley.

 

[Cartervol]

The answer is no.. He's going to get some time though. So really you have to look at more than the record. Dooley's teams be the end of the year had mailed it in. If Butch's teams have that same body language then he won't be around long, and the coaching carousel will continue..

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

Jones own assertion is that this group has bought into his program better than any other he's had. He was 12-1 in his first season at Cincy with a team that didn't completely buy in... so expecting more than 6 wins at UT is asking too much?

But to answer this part directly and with emphasis... yes... there are examples. Brian Kelly at ND. Kevin Sumlin at TAM. Urban Meyer at UF. Saban at LSU. Hoke at Michigan. Pelini at Nebraska. For top shelf coaches, it is probably more accurate to say that they DO have an immediate and profound effect on W/L.

Butch only won 4 games his first year at Cincy.

 

[Darth_Shiveman]

the last few years we've had this debate about talent.

during those years, tennessee has produced 2 drafted players in 2011, 1 in 2012, and 4 in 2013. 7 total

florida, georgia, alabama, and south carolina had 7 players or more drafted in 2013 alone.

tennessee has produced very few all conference players in the last 3 years.

and we know what the win-loss record is.

with all due respect, i do not know where all this talent is supposed to be.

This is pretty much the problem. We've had a few good recruiting classes, and still have some guys who were highly ranked coming into UT, but we have very few players returning who have produced at a high level with much consistency.


I'd say that it's hard to tell at this point whether this is due mainly to coaching, or whether the recruiting services got it wrong and these kids just aren't top tier talents.

So, on paper we have the talent to compete with some of the tougher opponents we face, but it's hard to tell whether that is actually true or not.


That being said, the goal for this team, to me, is to get back in a bowl game. If they make that happen this year I'll be satisfied.

 

[DarthVisor]

If you are looking for an average coach that does not get more out of a roster than the sum of its parts... then by all means. If you are looking for a guy who will bring championship caliber teams to UT... then no.

There are six teams on the schedule that an average coach should beat. There are 8 teams on the schedule that an above average coach should beat. There are 11 teams on the schedule that an emerging elite coach could beat though expecting more than 9 of the 11 would be fairly unrealistic.

Who?

 

[Orange Blazer]

Who?

Don't mind him. He is :crazy:

 

[Vol_Maul]

Butch only won 4 games his first year at Cincy.

And Saban lost to ULM at Alabama. Year one probably won't tell us much when you look at just the record, but signs should be there that indicate how things will go in the future.

 

[DarthVisor]

Don't mind him. He is :crazy:

Believe me, I know.

 

[Volfan2012]

If the final result is 7 and 5 and we win a bowl game I would be satisfied. The only way I could be happy is to win ten games and certainly don't expect this team to do that. Were headed in the right direction for it to happen in a couple of years.

 

[sanddune50]

IMPORTANT: Assume that we beat everyone on our schedule who we are supposed to beat, and that one of our six wins comes from either Oregon, UF, Bama, UGA, or USCe.

That equals 7-5 to me. Which is the record I would be cool with. With that being said, good coaches have a way of beating more talented teams. And based on we played South Carolina and UGA at their respective places last year, I think we have a shot at either one of those teams. And winning a big game early will lead to a strong finish to the 2014 recruiting class. Dooley had his shot at LSU and blew it, let's hope Butch pulls some rabbits out of his hat this year.

 

[508mikey]

Would Alabama or Georgia fans be happy with a 6-6 record ? (even if it was a 1st season coach)

 

[sjt18]

Butch only won 4 games his first year at Cincy.

Sorry. You are correct. He was 10-3 the second year.

Doesn't change the point at all though. If he can't win with this roster then I would like someone to explain to me why it won't be worse next year. If so, how long can "enthusiasim, energy, excitement," etc keep recruiting momentum going? He WILL all but certainly be on a hot seat in year 3 if he cannot get better than 6 wins out of this team.

 

[sjt18]

Who?

Vandy, UK, AP, WKU, USCe, Auburn, So Alabama, Mizzou.

Unless the recruiting svcs are absolutely, positively bogus... UT has more "talent" than your team. That does not mean they will win... only that the coaches have better raw material to work with.

 

[sjt18]

Don't mind him. He is :crazy:

Yet I am the one pointing to facts and giving rational answers built on facts?

It does amaze me however that those who berated me for "accepting mediocrity" when I said that judgment of Dooley should be withheld until we saw what he could do with the talent of the '12 team... are now stomping mad because I suggest that Jones should win 7 games with this roster. Now remember those guys were demanding that DD be fired for winning 6 then 5 games with rosters worse than the one Jones inherited. I NEVER... EVER suggested accepting mediocrity but rather time before making a judgment considering the condition of the program when DD arrived. He failed. I support the call to fire him 100% except that it occurred several weeks later than it should have. But mediocrity is mediocrity... and 6 wins with this roster would be mediocre.

I am definitely not against Jones. I like what he's done to generate excitement the "right way" instead of the punk way that Kiffin did it. He seems like a fine coach. He appears to have a great strategy for the program. But the bottom line is STILL "Can he measure up to the elite coaches in the SEC?"

Getting 6 wins or less suggests to me that he is just another guy who can beat who he's supposed to beat but will never measure up to the top tier. Seven wins leaves the case open if he beats USCe or Auburn. If he has 7 wins with one of those wins coming against Bama, Oregon, UF, or UGA then I think that would be very, very encouraging.

If he gets better than 7 wins... I will have a TON of confidence that he is a guy who can take UT back to the top.

 

[sjt18]

Believe me, I know.

Yep... someone lays out a case based on things we know... and folks think that's "crazy". Far more rational to go off "feelings".

 

[sjt18]

Would Saban take a team with the talent and attitude of the current Vol roster... and win 6 or less games? I don't think so.

You wanted a Saban or a Gruden, right? Why? Because you thought they could and would outcoach the competition. So you lower the standard now because you think UT made a lesser hire?

 

[sjt18]

That equals 7-5 to me. Which is the record I would be cool with. With that being said, good coaches have a way of beating more talented teams. And based on we played South Carolina and UGA at their respective places last year, I think we have a shot at either one of those teams. And winning a big game early will lead to a strong finish to the 2014 recruiting class. Dooley had his shot at LSU and blew it, let's hope Butch pulls some rabbits out of his hat this year.

:good!::good!::good!:

 

[VFL1800FPD]

Would Alabama or Georgia fans be happy with a 6-6 record ? (even if it was a 1st season coach)

You cant even begin to compare our situations...

If Bama went from 3 of the 4 last NCs to a 6-6, and UGA went from being a back to back SECEast champs to 6-6, there would be a riot. We've gone 5-7 in the past 2 seasons, at the very least, 6-6 would be an improvement.

 

[Boca Vol]

You cant even begin to compare our situations...

If Bama went from 3 of the 4 last NCs to a 6-6, and UGA went from being a back to back SECEast champs to 6-6, there would be a riot. We've gone 5-7 in the past 2 seasons, at the very least, 6-6 would be an improvement.

Well, UGA was 6-7 in 2010. They rebounded pretty nicely.

 

[vol66]

I want exactly what Ole Miss did last year for us this year. Freeze had no where near the talent we did last year. They were picked to be dead last in the West. Bo Wallace had never started a game. They beat a ranked team, their natural rival MSU. They played LSU, Vandy and A&M really tough. Beat the snot out of Pittsburgh in a bowl game to go 7-6.

 

[VolNExile]

I just want to see them playing hard. No matter what. If the opponent is good, or bad, or whatever. If we're up, or down, I don't care.

Out-gunned is one thing, that is going to happen sometimes.

But I don't ever want to see a UT team giving up again.

 

[VFL1800FPD]

Well, UGA was 6-7 in 2010. They rebounded pretty nicely.

You're not talking about rebounding though, 6-6 would be a regression for Bama and UGA after last season, whereas it would be an improvement for the vols, as sad as that is.

 

[DarthVisor]

Vandy, UK, AP, WKU, USCe, Auburn, So Alabama, Mizzou.

You're out of your mind.

Unless the recruiting svcs are absolutely, positively bogus... UT has more "talent" than your team.

Do you honestly believe that?

That does not mean they will win... only that the coaches have better raw material to work with.

Your coaches have very little to work with.

.

Yet I am the one pointing to facts and giving rational answers built on facts?

You have provided nothing "rational".


It does amaze me however that those who berated me for "accepting mediocrity" when I said that judgment of Dooley should be withheld until we saw what he could do with the talent of the '12 team... are now stomping mad because I suggest that Jones should win 7 games with this roster.

He should win at least six. If he pulls an upset somewhere, seven or eight is possible, but it shouldn't be expected. He has very little to work with.

Now remember those guys were demanding that DD be fired for winning 6 then 5 games with rosters worse than the one Jones inherited. I NEVER... EVER suggested accepting mediocrity but rather time before making a judgment considering the condition of the program when DD arrived. He failed. I support the call to fire him 100% except that it occurred several weeks later than it should have. But mediocrity is mediocrity... and 6 wins with this roster would be mediocre.

No, it wouldn't be.


I am definitely not against Jones. I like what he's done to generate excitement the "right way" instead of the punk way that Kiffin did it. He seems like a fine coach. He appears to have a great strategy for the program. But the bottom line is STILL "Can he measure up to the elite coaches in the SEC?"

We'll have our answer in a year or two.


Getting 6 wins or less suggests to me that he is just another guy who can beat who he's supposed to beat but will never measure up to the top tier. Seven wins leaves the case open if he beats USCe or Auburn. If he has 7 wins with one of those wins coming against Bama, Oregon, UF, or UGA then I think that would be very, very encouraging.

UT will be an underdog in each of the games you just listed, except maybe Auburn. UT doesn't have a lot of talent on this roster. I don't know what you're seeing that suggests otherwise.


If he gets better than 7 wins... I will have a TON of confidence that he is a guy who can take UT back to the top.

.

Yep... someone lays out a case based on things we know... and folks think that's "crazy". Far more rational to go off "feelings".

The fact that you believe six wins with the roster UT has would be mediocre/a disappointment is crazy.